XRP Price Prediction: Surge in On-Chain Transactions, Can It Break the $2.40 High in 2026?

Recent on-chain data shows that transaction activity on the XRP Ledger is significantly rebounding, with daily transaction volume approaching the key psychological threshold of 1 million transactions again. Meanwhile, the total number of transactions on the network has surpassed 99.82 million, moving toward the milestone of 100 million. This fundamental strengthening resonates with a technical breakout in price.

Current Market Status and Breakout Signals

According to Gate market data, as of January 5, 2026, XRP’s trading price is approximately $2.121, up over 2.92% in the past 24 hours. This rally is not an isolated event. Key technical breakthroughs have occurred: XRP successfully broke free from the long-term downtrend line established since November 2025. Market analysis generally considers the $1.75 region as the current core support level. Successfully defending this line would open up room for upward price movement.

A positive signal is the change in exchange supply. Recent on-chain data indicates that the amount of XRP held on centralized exchanges has fallen to about 1.6 billion tokens, the lowest level since 2018. Supply is flowing from trading platforms into private wallets or custody solutions, which is often interpreted as investors favoring long-term holding over short-term trading, helping to reduce immediate selling pressure in the market.

Core Drivers: Beyond Technical Analysis

The potential bullish narrative for XRP in 2026 is built on several fundamental catalysts. Institutional adoption and product innovation are becoming key driving forces. Ripple recently launched the institutional-level brokerage service “Ripple Prime” and completed a strategic acquisition of Hidden Road, aiming to deepen its presence among regulated financial institutions.

Another significant driver is the enormous potential market for asset tokenization. Some analysts believe that the global market for tokenized assets (such as stocks, bonds, funds) could reach $100 trillion by 2033. Ripple has partnered with Archax, planning to bring hundreds of millions of dollars worth of tokenized assets onto the XRP Ledger for settlement by mid-2026. If XRPL can capture a share of this market, it would generate sustained underlying demand for XRP.

The macro environment is also turning favorable. The market generally expects major global central banks to shift from tightening to easing monetary policy, with improved liquidity expectations often supporting risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

Technical Analysis and Key Price Levels

From a purely technical perspective, XRP’s chart structure has turned positive. Key moving average systems are showing a bullish alignment, with short-term averages beginning to cross above long-term averages, providing dynamic support for the price. According to comprehensive technical analysis by Google AI, the most important resistance level XRP faces is around $2.36, roughly coinciding with the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). A successful breakout above this level would significantly strengthen the market structure. Some analysts set the next target range at $2.40 to $2.50.

Momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) show healthy strength during the price rally, not yet entering extreme overbought territory, indicating room for continued upward momentum. Volume analysis supports this: during the price increase, trading volume has expanded significantly, which is not a “no-volume rally” but a sign of genuine capital participation.

2026 Price Outlook

Market analysts provide a broad spectrum of forecasts for XRP’s price trajectory in 2026, reflecting different assumptions and market perspectives.

A relatively conservative forecast suggests XRP could see steady recovery in 2026, with an average annual price around $3.70, fluctuating between $3.00 and $4.80. This projection is based on gradual adoption and mild macroeconomic improvements.

A more optimistic scenario envisions a bolder outlook. Some analysts note that if the XRP spot ETF supported by Blackstone continues to attract large capital inflows, and Japan’s expansion plans proceed smoothly, XRP could challenge its previous all-time high around $5.0. Even more aggressive forecasts suggest that in an extreme bull market with unprecedented adoption rates, prices could reach $8 to $15. These predictions often rely on long-term narratives such as “trillions of dollars of assets migrating onto the chain.”

Potential Risks and Market Challenges

Despite the bright outlook, investing in XRP involves several significant risks. The primary risk stems from regulatory issues. Although Ripple has made important progress in its ongoing lawsuit with the U.S. SEC, cryptocurrency regulation worldwide remains rapidly evolving and uncertain. Any adverse regulatory developments could cause short-term price shocks.

Market competition is another real factor. In the cross-border payments and asset tokenization sectors, XRP faces fierce competition from other blockchains (like Stellar) and established stablecoins (such as USDC, USDT). These alternatives may attract users with lower volatility or different technical features.

Additionally, token supply dynamics require ongoing attention. Ripple periodically releases XRP from escrow wallets; while these tokens are mainly used for ecosystem development and partnerships, if market demand does not grow in tandem, it could exert temporary downward pressure on prices.

As of January 5, 2026, XRP’s trading price on Gate is $2.121. From expansion into the Japanese market to inflows from Blackstone-supported ETF funds, multiple positive factors drive XRP’s future potential. Crypto market analyst Chad Steingraber expressed on Gate Square that 2026 might be a period of stable accumulation, with a real shift expected in 2027. Whether XRP Ledger, just one step away from the 100 million transaction milestone, can see its on-chain activity and price reach new highs in 2026 remains to be seen, as the market’s next move is about to unfold.