Ethereum's recent trend has left many people feeling uncertain. Upon closer inspection, the market is indeed sending out several not-so-pleasant signals that warrant caution.

First, the enthusiasm for large-scale capital purchases has noticeably cooled down. Previously, major institutional players kept buying, supporting the price increase. Now, this force is clearly waning. When the main capital inflow slows, the market loses its most important support, which can easily trigger a chain reaction.

Second, geopolitical risks are also causing disruptions. Recent actions by the US targeting certain regions have already startled the stock market, with US stocks plunging on Monday. This panic is rapidly spreading to the crypto space. When investors panic, they tend to abandon risk assets and seek safe havens. Cryptocurrencies like Ethereum naturally become targets of selling pressure.

From a technical perspective, Ethereum faces stiff resistance on the weekly chart. The Fibonacci retracement level at $3,167 acts like a wall that has been repeatedly tested but not broken through, indicating significant selling pressure at this level. Every rebound here gets pushed back down, which is not a good sign.

Looking further down on the monthly chart, Ethereum has not yet truly tested the strong support levels below. This suggests that the price foundation might not be as solid as imagined. If buying momentum collapses, a sharp drop to find a bottom could occur.

Lastly, there's an often-overlooked issue—retail investor accumulation. In the $2,800 to $3,200 range, a large number of small investors hold coins. Historical experience shows that areas with concentrated retail holdings often need to go through a "cleansing" phase before a sustained rally can begin. The current correction might be part of this process.

These five factors together exert considerable downward pressure on the price. The key support level at $2,600 is especially worth watching closely. Of course, market corrections also mean risk clearing. Once risks are cleared, opportunities will arise.