Recently, there's a topic in the market that hits particularly close to home, and we need to have a good discussion about it. Many people believe that the biggest threat to the crypto market is regulatory pressure or some projects running away. Actually, that's not the case. The real factor that can shake the entire market comes from the traditional financial sector—the $12 trillion US debt issue.

My observation is this: if this problem is not handled properly, by 2026, the crypto market is very likely to experience a significant adjustment period. And the signals are already being released now; it's just that many people haven't realized it yet.

Let's start with the basic logic. The operation of the global financial system relies heavily on US Treasuries, which are like the stabilizing anchor. Why? Because US Treasuries are widely regarded as the safest assets, and institutional investors around the world use them as liquidity reserves and hedging tools. But now, this anchor is beginning to loosen—$12 trillion in debt matures successively, refinancing rates rise sharply, and the entire financial network naturally starts to sway.

Some may ask, what does a problem with US Treasuries have to do with my crypto assets? It’s a lot. The transmission path is actually quite clear: rising refinancing costs for US Treasuries lead to a decline in their current prices, causing losses on the books of institutional holders. To hedge against these losses, they will sell risk assets—cryptocurrencies being the first to go, because they are typical risk assets. Large-scale selling directly pushes down the prices of tokens.

On a second level, the debt crisis will amplify market panic. Investors will instinctively flee risk and rush into safe assets like cash and bonds. At this point, liquidity in the crypto market will dry up significantly, and downward pressure on prices will intensify.