Recently, the topic of large investment institutions increasing their Bitcoin holdings has been very popular, and my backend inquiries have surged accordingly. "Should I go all-in and follow suit?" "Since institutions are so optimistic, can Bitcoin break $100,000 next year?" Such questions are endless. Honestly, seeing these reactions made me take a deep breath.

First, I need to clarify a common misconception: many people assume "institutions = professionalism = guaranteed profit," but the reality is far from that simple. Historically, many heavily invested institutional projects have ended up zero. The actions of institutions can indeed trigger market sentiment, but the problem is that emotion-driven rallies are just fireworks; the long-term trend is determined elsewhere.

So, where is the decision-making power? I will analyze it from three dimensions.

**First is user adoption rate**—this is the true foundation of Bitcoin's long-term value. The data speaks for itself: in 2017, the number of active Bitcoin addresses was about 1 million; now it has surpassed 5 million. The number of merchants accepting Bitcoin worldwide has also grown from a few thousand to hundreds of thousands. These growth curves reflect real, measurable value accumulation. Institutional accumulation behavior is essentially also pushing up user adoption, but that’s only the surface; the underlying driving forces are network effects and the expansion of practical applications.