Corn Prices Feeling the Weight of Monday's Empty Momentum

ContractCollector · 2026-01-04T15:45:15+00:00

The corn market faces losses as futures drop amid holiday pullback, with cash prices at $4.00. Exports show a mixed picture: a seasonal decline in shipments contrasts with a significant year-over-year increase, led by strong demand from Mexico. Despite selling pressure across contracts, resilient export numbers suggest ongoing demand.

ContractCollector

2026-01-04 15:45:15

Abstract generation in progress

The corn market is grappling with notable losses as the trading week opens, with futures contracts sliding 6 to 7 cents amid a pullback from holiday-supported levels. The CmdtyView national average cash corn price has declined 6¾ cents, now standing at $4.00. Despite thin trading conditions, market participants are reassessing positions following the year-end rally.

Export Data Paints a Mixed Picture

Recent Export Inspections data reveals the complexities underlying current price action. For the week ending Christmas Day, corn shipments totaled 1.301 MMT (51.2 mbu)—a 25.53% drop from the previous week, a typical seasonal pattern during the holiday period. However, comparing year-over-year figures tells a more optimistic story: shipments surged 43.37% compared to the same week last year.

Mexico emerged as the leading destination with 400,140 MT in purchases, while Colombia and Japan received 221,240 MT and 219,137 MT respectively. More significantly, marketing year shipments have reached 25.57 MMT (1.006 bbu), marking a remarkable 66.17% increase compared to the prior year. This milestone represents the first time on record that the U.S. has shipped more than 1 bbu before the calendar year ends, a significant achievement that underscores strong global demand despite current price pressures.

Futures Contracts Under Pressure

The contract-by-contract breakdown reflects the feeling of selling pressure across the curve:

Mar 26 Corn: $4.43¼, down 6¾ cents
Nearby Cash: $3.99¼, down 6¾ cents
May 26 Corn: $4.51¾, down 6½ cents
Jul 26 Corn: $4.58, down 6¼ cents

The relatively uniform decline across contracts suggests broad-based profit-taking rather than isolated weakness. Even with this Monday pullback, the strength of export numbers and marketing year performance suggest underlying demand remains resilient, though sentiment appears empty of conviction at current price levels.

EIA data for the week of 12/19 is expected today, which could provide additional context for the market’s next directional move.

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