2026-01-04 15:24:48

Recently, I've been pondering an interesting idea—if this round of Bitcoin rebound can stabilize and continue to push into the $100,000 to $107,000 range, and not all at once but through repeated oscillations and rebounds to wear down the market, then during a one- to two-month adjustment period, we might see an uncommon altcoin rally.

What are the characteristics of this kind of market? It's not the typical bull season where everything rises blindly, but among the top 200 market cap altcoins, only about 10% might actually outperform Bitcoin. It sounds harsh, but this is precisely the opportunity for projects with real cash flow, hot sectors, and market focus—such as coins like PEPE, which inherently carry a "demonic" nature, or projects like PUMP and ASTER that have revenue, structure, and clear positioning. They don’t rely on hype stories but speak with solid fundamentals.

In essence, this isn’t a broad altcoin rally for everyone, but a market that only selective players can seize. Looking at historical bull cycles, such opportunities usually appear after Bitcoin hits new highs and the first major retracement, during the subsequent rebound window. At that point, it’s not about courage but about understanding the market.

But all of this is just imagination for now. Whether this imagination can become reality depends on a very clear and strict prerequisite—the ETH/BTC exchange rate must strengthen. If the rate doesn’t move, altcoins will always be just along for the ride; only when ETH outperforms BTC will market risk appetite truly shift.

So, at this stage, the mindset is rather pure: no rush to bet, no rush to dismiss. First, observe how the market structure develops, then talk about these fantasies. Fantasies are fine, but only when the real signals appear.

BTC0,31%

PEPE-2,2%

PUMP4,26%

ASTER0,5%

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PumpBeforeRug

· 01-06 23:35

eth/btc only moves when it really moves, anything else is just talking in vain now

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MetaverseHobo

· 01-06 21:30

Alright, I buy that logic. Just worried that the ETH/BTC line might continue to stay flat. --- Only 10% of the top 200 can beat BTC? Sounds outrageous, but it just proves what stock-picking ability really means. --- Wait for the signal to appear before acting. I respect this attitude. Much more sensible than those who shout all in every day. --- The statement that PEPE has a mischievous nature does have some truth to it. --- The key is still when ETH will wake up. Without a rise in the exchange rate, everything is just empty talk.

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ZenZKPlayer

· 01-04 15:54

If it sounds reliable, I'm just worried that ETH/BTC will never be strong enough, then it will really just be a follower.

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BearMarketGardener

· 01-04 15:54

That's very true. A 10% probability filter means you really need to understand the fundamentals; you can't just rely on luck. ETH/BTC is tightly pegged at this point, and that's the key. Wait for the signal, there's no rush anyway. PEPE and PUMP types do have inherent attributes, but the prerequisite is that BTC really stabilizes. Most of the current buys are based on stories, not many are actually looking at the data. If this wave comes, it will be a game for the smart investors; retail investors are still prone to missing out.

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BlockchainTherapist

· 01-04 15:52

Sounds pretty reliable, but the ETH/BTC threshold really got stuck, feels like we have to wait a bit longer. --- A 10%淘汰率? Honestly, I’m optimistic about this round of screening. Compared to last year’s crazy hype of everything being炒, this is much more靠谱. --- PUMP and ASTER do have some things, but it still depends on whether Bitcoin can really磨下去 this time. No rush. --- I think the key is when ETH will转身, otherwise all the talk is just paper tigers. --- This analysis approach is good, but in practice, it really tests your眼光. I’m still on the sidelines. --- Market understanding vs.胆量, this metaphor hits the core, but now everyone is guessing whether ETH will move. --- Feels like we are just waiting for signals now, a bit tough to endure.

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Fren_Not_Food

· 01-04 15:50

Wait a minute, your logic is a bit convoluted... Basically, it's about betting on ETH/BTC breakout. Just thinking about 10% gains to beat others, what about the 90% of retail investors? They still get cut in the PUMP. I agree with the saying that PEPE has a mischievous nature, but by the time the signal appears, the market has already moved on. This is the so-called "waiting for the perfect moment and missing it perfectly." But on the other hand, this kind of thinking is definitely more reliable than blindly going all-in.

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GateUser-7b078580

· 01-04 15:48

Data shows that this 10% filtering space indeed exists, but the key is the ETH/BTC exchange rate—without this signal, even the most perfect narrative is useless. Let's wait a bit longer.

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WealthCoffee

· 01-04 15:39

It sounds good, but it still depends on whether ETH/BTC can turn around. Right now, it's all just air.

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SatoshiNotNakamoto

· 01-04 15:27

It sounds like betting on the ETH/BTC ratio, nothing more complicated. --- Only 10% of the top 200 altcoins have outperformed BTC? Then I might as well go all-in on ETH. --- Wait, is your logic reversed? BTC hits new highs, and you're still waiting for a signal? --- Is a meme coin like Pepe really considered cash flow? That's hilarious. --- Sounds nice, but it's really just betting on an uncertain time window. --- If ETH/BTC doesn't turn upward, all the understanding in the world is useless, really. --- A one or two-month break-in period? The market isn't that gentle, bro. --- Feels like just finding reasons for inaction. --- I've heard this kind of selective market talk too many times. The ones who make money are always that 10%. --- Those still waiting for signals, by the time the signal appears, the move will have already finished.

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