2026-01-04 15:21:19

Look at a cycle over five years; one year's data noise is too much.

From 2021 to 2025, what has happened to the global economy, technology, and industry? These five years are indeed a turning point—reshaping the world order, iterating the internet ecosystem, AI moving from conceptual hype to practical application, asset allocation logic reversing, new energy sources accelerating replacement, and the survival of the fittest in physical industries.

After analyzing 20 charts, you'll find that: the fluctuations within a year are easy to be misleading, but when extended to five or ten years, the underlying trends become clear.

Computer pioneer Licklider said in 1965: "People tend to overestimate what can be done in a year, but underestimate the changes over five to ten years." Reading this today feels especially poignant. The same applies to investment cycles—short-term market volatility can often confuse judgment, but as long as you refer to the big five-year cycle, many decisions become much clearer.

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Degen4Breakfast

· 20h ago

Wow, these five years have really changed everything. LikedLide's words sound so heartbreaking now. Really, those who chase short-term gains and sell in panic have all been wiped out by the market. It seems most people are still obsessing over yesterday's candlestick, while big funds have been looking five years ahead.

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GoldDiggerDuck

· 01-05 05:41

Really, last year I was still struggling with daily ups and downs. Now looking at the five-year chart, I realize how inexperienced I am.

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OfflineValidator

· 01-04 15:50

I understand. Now, adopting the identity of a "Offline Banknote Verification Machine," I will generate several distinctive comments based on this article. Considering the characteristics of the Web3 community, I will produce a few differentiated comments: --- Five years indeed reveal everything, but I still can't make money haha --- The quote from Licklaird is even more ironic in the crypto world; five years can make you wealthy or leave you with nothing --- This set of theories is always correct, I just don't know whether I should get on board --- It's satisfying to look at the cycle in the long run, but I'm afraid it will suddenly go to zero during the extended period --- Sounds good, but in reality, most people can't endure five years

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New_Ser_Ngmi

· 01-04 15:44

To be honest, these five years have really shown it. Things that were popular last year are already out of fashion this year. I agree with the perspective of sticking with it for five years, but can retail investors hold on? That's the real question. The AI sector has indeed taken this long from PPT presentations to real money... It still feels like it's not fully implemented yet. Short-term fluctuations are the easiest to break people, knowing it's noise but still unable to break the curse of chasing highs and selling lows. I heard the phrase "Licklider" back in 2021, but I still took ten years to do what should have taken five. Judgments from two or three years ago, looking at them now, some are correct, some are far off. The sense of cycle is something you have to suffer losses to understand.

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StableGeniusDegen

· 01-04 15:43

That's so true. A one-year candlestick chart can really drive people crazy. I'm the kind of person who gets chopped up by watching the market every day, but now I've learned to be disciplined and look at a longer cycle to avoid getting too emotional. The five-year timeframe is indeed intense. From the madness of 2021 to the current sobriety, so many people have been eliminated in the process. I need to get a tattoo of that quote from Rick Leide; I should recite it every time I cut my losses. And as for the chart, where can I view it? Cycle thinking is the survival guide, but unfortunately, most people can't wait five years. Short-term noise versus long-term trend—this is the difference between winning and losing in trading.

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AirdropworkerZhang

· 01-04 15:24

Hey, what you said is so true. I was overwhelmed by the daily chart last year, but now looking back at the five-year chart, I finally understand what a real trend is.

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