The recent rally in the crypto market is indeed different. It's not the kind of leverage-driven, everyone-partying rally; instead, it feels more like a "steady and solid" climb. What's the underlying logic behind this?
Breaking down this rebound, there are actually three forces working together:
Political fluctuations in places like Venezuela have caused concern in traditional finance circles about sovereign credit issues. Under this uncertainty, Bitcoin's advantage as a "decentralized asset" has been rediscovered. Simply put, some are using it as a hedge. The short-term sentiment driven by this can indeed push prices higher.
In the past day, approximately $180 million of futures leverage was liquidated across the market, mostly shorts. This sounds aggressive, but in reality, it's a good thing — those unstable high-leverage positions have been cleared out. The market has become more "clean," and the pressure for further upward movement has decreased.
**Spot Market Funds Are the True Drivers**
This is the key point. Looking at futures data makes it clear: the funding rate remains at a healthy level of around 4%, and open interest has significantly decreased. What does this indicate? This rally is mainly driven not by futures traders speculating, but by genuine buying in the spot market. This "spot-led" pattern tends to be more solid and less prone to bubbles.
**In summary**: Geopolitical events ignited market sentiment, institutions took the opportunity to clear risky leveraged shorts, and then spot market funds steadily continued the rally. This isn't a "leverage bull," but a "spot bull."
Of course, don't forget the risk warning — the heat from geopolitical factors may fade, and macro factors like Federal Reserve policies and global liquidity remain constraints.
In the short term, a few points to watch: Can Bitcoin hold above $92,000 and push higher? Will Ethereum follow with increased volume and break through? Manage your positions prudently — don't be scared out of the market or chase the highs.
If this rally is truly driven by spot market activity, where do you think the ceiling is? Share your thoughts in the comments.
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
17 Likes
Reward
17
8
Repost
Share
Comment
0/400
FlashLoanLarry
· 01-06 11:58
Spot trading relay sounds reliable, but once the geopolitical heat cools down, it will depend on who steps in to take over.
View OriginalReply0
BagHolderTillRetire
· 01-05 10:12
Spot market is bullish... Hmm, wait, is there really no leverage maniacs causing chaos this time? I still find it a bit hard to believe.
View OriginalReply0
NFTRegretter
· 01-04 14:52
Spot trading is much more reliable than leveraged trading, but how long this hype can last is really uncertain.
View OriginalReply0
StableCoinKaren
· 01-04 14:51
Spot trading is much more reliable, finally not a leverage game anymore.
View OriginalReply0
Gm_Gn_Merchant
· 01-04 14:50
Spot bulls do feel different, but what if the geopolitical heat fades away?
View OriginalReply0
StealthDeployer
· 01-04 14:43
Spot market is reliable, but I'm afraid a single statement from the Federal Reserve could ruin everything.
View OriginalReply0
DaoResearcher
· 01-04 14:41
Based on on-chain data and the trend of open interest in futures contracts, this hypothesis holds within a 95% confidence interval—the spot market is indeed taking over. However, it is worth noting that the funding rate of 4% itself suggests that the market has not fully priced in the geopolitical premium. Once macroeconomic expectations reverse, liquidity will become stratified. It is recommended that everyone first look at the voting data of governance proposals and not be fooled by the short-term illusion of "stability." The fragility of this pattern has been proven in every crisis.
View OriginalReply0
LoneValidator
· 01-04 14:30
Spot trading is enjoyable, but once geopolitical heat subsides, it all depends on the Federal Reserve's stance. This ceiling is really hard to predict.
The recent rally in the crypto market is indeed different. It's not the kind of leverage-driven, everyone-partying rally; instead, it feels more like a "steady and solid" climb. What's the underlying logic behind this?
Breaking down this rebound, there are actually three forces working together:
**Geopolitical Changes, Safe-Haven Funds Bottoming Out**
Political fluctuations in places like Venezuela have caused concern in traditional finance circles about sovereign credit issues. Under this uncertainty, Bitcoin's advantage as a "decentralized asset" has been rediscovered. Simply put, some are using it as a hedge. The short-term sentiment driven by this can indeed push prices higher.
**Futures Market Cleanup, Leverage Positions Swept Out**
In the past day, approximately $180 million of futures leverage was liquidated across the market, mostly shorts. This sounds aggressive, but in reality, it's a good thing — those unstable high-leverage positions have been cleared out. The market has become more "clean," and the pressure for further upward movement has decreased.
**Spot Market Funds Are the True Drivers**
This is the key point. Looking at futures data makes it clear: the funding rate remains at a healthy level of around 4%, and open interest has significantly decreased. What does this indicate? This rally is mainly driven not by futures traders speculating, but by genuine buying in the spot market. This "spot-led" pattern tends to be more solid and less prone to bubbles.
**In summary**: Geopolitical events ignited market sentiment, institutions took the opportunity to clear risky leveraged shorts, and then spot market funds steadily continued the rally. This isn't a "leverage bull," but a "spot bull."
Of course, don't forget the risk warning — the heat from geopolitical factors may fade, and macro factors like Federal Reserve policies and global liquidity remain constraints.
In the short term, a few points to watch: Can Bitcoin hold above $92,000 and push higher? Will Ethereum follow with increased volume and break through? Manage your positions prudently — don't be scared out of the market or chase the highs.
If this rally is truly driven by spot market activity, where do you think the ceiling is? Share your thoughts in the comments.