2026-01-04 14:26:39

【A True Reflection of the Rise and Fall, Beware of These Invisible Killers】

When the market rises, everyone is calculating profits; when it falls, everyone is shouting "game over." This rebound has indeed been crazy, but hidden risks are also heating up. Many seasoned traders have been quietly hedging their positions recently—

🔴 **Risk One: The Black Swan Is Still Flying in the Sky**

Geopolitical tensions are often used as trading themes, which is common. But once global risk sentiment suddenly shifts, Bitcoin's "safe-haven halo" will instantly fade. It has happened before—scenarios where Bitcoin and US stocks crash together are real.

How to defend? Keep an eye on the correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq. When they rise and fall together, be cautious.

🔴 **Risk Two: Longs Turning Against Each Other**

The market has already liquidated 180 million USD in short positions. Sounds good for longs, but this is the most dangerous signal—without shorts, the long positions become each other's biggest enemies. The damage caused by profit-taking sell-offs is ten times more ferocious than that of opposing traders.

The 90,000 USD level must be watched closely. If it breaks, a stampede-like escape could happen in an instant.

🔴 **Risk Three: Macro Big Hands Are Turning**

BlackRock's internal reports have long pointed out—Federal Reserve's easing and tightening have a much greater impact than Bitcoin halving. This is not alarmist. March's inflation data and the Fed meeting minutes are ticking time bombs. Once global liquidity tightens, no halving cycle or ETF inflow can withstand it.

🛡️ **Trading Rules for Survival**

Pyramid-style position building is fundamental— the more the price surges, the more you should reduce your position and add gradually; never chase highs.

Keep enough stablecoins on hand. Only when key support levels are truly broken is it an opportunity to buy the dip in batches.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is the most direct indicator. Once it breaks through 105, immediately cut your positions—don't fight the macro trend.

Some profits can be converted into stablecoins for investment, even if the returns are modest, to hedge against the worst-case missed opportunity risk. Stay alive, then wait for the next wave.

BTC0,48%

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MeaninglessGwei

· 01-07 01:00

The 90,000 mark really can't be broken; once it's breached, it's over.

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SnapshotStriker

· 01-06 04:43

Oh come on, 90,000 must be maintained, right? Last time you said 80,000 was the life and death line, and what happened? The returns from stablecoin investments are not even as good as what I earn sleeping... This bullish squeeze, I believe it. Just look at the liquidation data from the exchanges, it's a slaughterhouse visible to the naked eye. If DXY really breaks through 105, I'll run immediately. Don't talk about halving cycles, in front of liquidity, it's all just clouds. Feels like we're just waiting for the Federal Reserve to fart...

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WhaleWatcher

· 01-05 18:11

90,000 support can't hold, and it's really over. I've seen too many times the script of bulls killing bears this time. --- How to prevent a black swan? Easier said than done. I've already been smashing my positions. --- The Federal Reserve's move is a hundred times more aggressive than halving. That's not wrong to say. --- Stablecoin investment is really boring, but staying alive is indeed the most important. --- 180 million shorts buried, this is the most frightening signal; no one is going against you anymore. --- The DXY indicator must be watched closely; if it breaks 105, I'll run immediately. --- The most important thing when prices are going crazy is to stay calm. How many people are chasing high and losing money in this rebound? --- Building a pyramid position sounds simple, but few can really stick with it. --- Only buy the dip after support levels break. Sounds right, but it's a psychological barrier you can't get past. --- Don't force against macro trends. I need to engrain this sentence in my mind.

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gas_fee_trauma

· 01-04 14:54

The 90,000 mark really can't be held, and there will be a stampede-like escape in just one second.

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FlyingLeek

· 01-04 14:52

If 90,000 can't be brought down, there's no hope. This time is truly different. --- 180 million shorts have been buried, but it makes us even more afraid. Mutual destruction among bulls is the real killer. --- BlackRock has already said that the Federal Reserve is more aggressive than halving. We're still dreaming. --- Breaks 105 on the DXY and run—that's the only way to survive. Don't bet on macro. --- The phrase "raging and reducing positions" is heard often, but few actually do it, including me. --- Stablecoin investment sounds boring, but staying alive is the real winner. --- Black swans never knock on the door. When Bitcoin and NASDAQ crash together, I will be there. --- Building a pyramid with positions sounds nice, but it's really just psychological preparation.

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HodlOrRegret

· 01-04 14:52

This wave looks exciting, but you really need to stay alert. The 180 million short liquidation sounds thrilling, but it's actually a big trap—when there's no counterparty, it's just a matter of who can run faster. The 90,000 threshold must be watched closely.

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GhostWalletSleuth

· 01-04 14:33

Can the 90,000 line really prevent a stampede? I always feel like it will just get through directly.

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GateUser-9f682d4c

· 01-04 14:31

90,000 really can't be maintained, once a stampede happens, no one can run away

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OnchainHolmes