Bitcoin faces dual pressure: resistance at 90K and miner capitulation

The week leading up to the end of the year brings simultaneous challenges for Bitcoin. The asset retreats to levels close to US$ 87,700, highlighting the difficulty in overcoming the psychological barrier of US$ 90,000—a level that has concentrated significant liquidity volume and sell orders in previous weeks. According to updated data, Bitcoin is priced at US$ 91.26K with a 1.40% increase over 24 hours, reflecting the characteristic volatility of this period.

Lack of direction and reduced liquidity amplify movements

The sideways behavior persists, with prices oscillating within a narrow range and high volatility, creating a scenario where buyers and sellers are in unstable balance. The lack of direction is also linked to the disconnect from precious metals: while gold and silver reach historic highs amid macroeconomic uncertainty, Bitcoin does not follow the same investment flow that characterized previous risk-off periods.

The reduction in depth on order books exacerbates this dynamic. With many traders reducing exposure near year-end to preserve accumulated profits, smaller volume operations gain the capacity to move prices abruptly. Analysts point out that without a more substantial influx of buying capital accompanied by a significant increase in volume, consolidation is likely to prolong.

Technical indicators signal weakening of selling pressure

Despite the price weakness, constructive signals are beginning to emerge. On the three-day chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) forms progressively higher lows while the price marks lower lows—a bullish divergence that, in previous cycles, preceded significant upward movements. Although divergences do not act alone as reversal triggers, they indicate decreasing selling pressure and increase the likelihood of a rebound if confirming elements emerge.

On the four-hour chart, recurring rejections at the 200-period simple moving average and exponential (EMA) establish a dynamic resistance that marks the medium-term control zone. Recovering this level is a prerequisite for establishing a more solid upward structure. The failure to turn US$ 90,000 into support reinforces participants’ defensive behavior: each attempt to advance is accompanied by an increase in sell orders that limit more targeted movements.

Institutional short positions reach US$ 250 million

Recent data reveal that large investors have opened short positions in Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana totaling approximately US$ 250 million. This strategy does not necessarily reflect an aggressive directional bet against the market but rather a protective mechanism against the risk of subsequent corrections. However, the impact of these positions intensifies in environments with compressed liquidity.

Miner capitulation reduces structural pressure

On the fundamental level, the network is experiencing stress for mining operators. A VanEck report documents a 4% drop in the hash rate—the sharpest since the first half of 2024—concurrent with a 9% monthly decline in Bitcoin’s price. The 30-day realized volatility exceeded 45%, a level not recorded since April 2025.

This combination forces less efficient operators to deactivate equipment to avoid operational losses. The capitulation process tends to reduce medium-term structural selling pressure by eliminating marginal agents who need to liquidate assets to cover immediate costs.

Energy reallocation in China accelerates sector consolidation

A key catalyst in the recent decline was the shutdown of approximately 400,000 machines in China’s Xinjiang province, removing about 1.3 GW of capacity from the grid in just 24 hours. The decision is linked to reallocating energy to artificial intelligence data centers, an activity currently offering higher margins than Bitcoin mining.

Estimates indicate that up to 10% of the global hash rate could be permanently lost. This reorganization is likely to concentrate mining operations among players with access to more competitive energy and more efficient infrastructure, substantially raising the entry barrier in the sector.

Cost compression and economic viability

For the Bitmain S19 XP model, the break-even point for electricity costs has fallen from US$ 0.12 to US$ 0.077 per kWh over twelve months—a 36% reduction. Operations unable to keep pace with this compression face increasing risk of becoming economically unviable.

At the same time, data shows that at least 13 countries are already participating in Bitcoin mining with some level of state support, seeking to achieve energy or monetary sovereignty.

Recovery history after capitulation

The long-term outlook offers a more positive nuance. Historically, drops in the hash rate have been followed by positive Bitcoin returns in 65% of cases after 90 days. During periods of hash rate contraction over 90-day windows, the six-month average return reached 72%, suggesting that miner capitulation often coincides with the exhaustion of selling pressure.

The Christmas week tends to keep liquidity low, increasing potential both for continued sideways movements and for sharp reactions to macroeconomic releases. The market now awaits a more consistent influx of buying capital to restore the credibility of the Bitcoin bullish structure.