The hottest topic in the recent crypto market is FIL, which rose 14% in a day, coupled with the community's buzzing "26-year target of $10, 27-year target of $20," and the entire discussion exploded. Some believe this is just retail FOMO, while others see it as a signal that big funds are already positioning themselves in advance. As an analyst who observes capital flows over the long term, I think it's necessary to clarify this matter: Is this FIL surge driven by market sentiment playing tricks, or is it truly a return to value? Are the community's target prices just hype or do they have some basis?

First, let's talk about the driving force behind this rally. FIL's rise from a low of $1.1 definitely dampened many people's spirits. But as soon as the news of the technical upgrade came out, expectations reversed entirely. A 14% increase, to put it plainly, is a direct reflection of market optimism about the upgrade in the price. Just look at the trading charts—both institutions and retail investors are taking the opportunity to accumulate, with buying activity remaining active. The power of sentiment is so strong—once a new story emerges, the market begins to believe.

But it's important to clarify one thing: sentiment is just the trigger, not the explosive force itself. What truly supports FIL's upward movement is the underlying logic. This upgrade isn't just a simple iteration; it transforms FIL from a storage-layer project into an ecosystem of programmable cloud services. The application scenarios suddenly expand, and the imagination space for ecosystem applications widens immediately. This means the project's valuation logic needs to be recalculated. Coupled with the scarcity created by the deflationary model, the price now has a fundamental support level. Sentiment amplifies this value, rather than creating value out of thin air.

The current question is whether the community's "26-year $10, 27-year $20" targets are reliable. Calling it just pie-in-the-sky is not entirely unfounded. In the long run, if the ecosystem truly develops as expected and application scenarios have real potential, these targets might not be just empty talk. But whether they will definitely be achieved remains uncertain.

The key is whether future ecosystem development can meet expectations. It's a bit early to draw conclusions now, but at least it shows the market has found a new narrative logic, and this logic has some persuasive power. In the short term, sentiment may continue to boost the price, but long-term support still depends on actual application implementation. This rally is neither purely a pie-in-the-sky dream nor just empty optimism; it is a reshaping of expectations supported by fundamentals. How to grasp the rhythm depends on your judgment of the project's progress.