24-hour countdown, Ethereum converges at the 3150 level with millions of funds confronting each other. The entire community is buzzing—some shout "Breakthrough will immediately rebound 300 points, going all-in is the way to get rich," while others scream "Break below and it will crash directly, run quickly." But honestly, obsessing over the direction is just a waste of effort.

I've been in this industry for 9 years, surviving and making money, and it's never been about correctly predicting the rise or fall, but about a set of position logic that can survive no matter how the market moves. The biggest problem for many retail investors is treating position allocation as a game—either going all-in on a gamble or stubbornly sticking to one direction, resulting in liquidation or losses.

To put it plainly, the core contradiction of the market is not "up or down," but "how to extract certain profits through reasonable allocation in high-risk, high-opportunity situations." That’s the real skill. You might be completely correct in your directional judgment, but if your position is misallocated, you’ll still suffer heavy losses; conversely, if your directional judgment is biased, a reasonable position allocation can still keep losses within an acceptable range, or even break even.

There is only one core principle: never go all-in at the decisive moment. I don’t care how strong your signals are, the maximum total position must be limited to within 10% of investable funds. Why? Even the best signals carry a 10% chance of a crash. If you go all-in and miss the move, you’re completely out, with no chance to turn around. True experts focus on long-term survival, not just one shot. My approach is to divide the position into three parts—this article will explain how to allocate them scientifically.