2026-01-04 13:23:24

The pump-and-dump cycles of altcoins can be exhausting, but the greater threat actually lies at the macro level. The pressure on the US fiscal system in 2026 is becoming the most overlooked risk factor in the crypto market.

Numbers speak for themselves. Nearly one-third of US publicly held government bonds will mature between 2025 and 2026, with at least $4.1 trillion needing to be refinanced in 2026 alone. What does this scale look like? From another perspective, it’s about 30 trillion RMB, exceeding a quarter of the annual GDP of a major country. The problem is that most of this debt was borrowed during the zero-interest-rate era, and now interest rates have surpassed 4%, doubling the debt service costs.

The government’s options are limited to three: raise taxes, increase the money supply, or borrow new debt to pay off old debt. Whichever path is chosen, it will directly squeeze liquidity in the global financial markets. The existence of crypto assets fundamentally depends on liquidity — this cannot be avoided.

During the massive liquidity injection in 2020, global monetary easing directly fueled the crypto bull market. By 2022, with the interest rate hike cycle, the market instantly turned to a bear market. This time, the fiscal pressure is much more complex than just rising interest rates; debt refinancing is a hard constraint that cannot be bypassed. US annual interest expenses are approaching the trillion-dollar mark, and this figure is expected to continue rising over the next decade.

To respond relatively safely, the main strategies are: first, stay away from over-leveraged and obviously overvalued projects, and reduce contract positions where necessary; second, shift focus to mainstream assets with strong liquidity and clear fundamentals, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as sectors with real application scenarios like cross-border payments and decentralized storage; finally, keep enough cash reserves to prepare for a potential deep downturn in 2026.

The crypto market cannot be completely independent of macroeconomic trends. Those claims that deliberately make you ignore fiscal risks and focus solely on short-term hot spots are best ignored.

BTC3,31%

ETH4,49%

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just_vibin_onchain

· 01-07 12:24

You really need to pay attention to the US debt issue; focusing only on shit coins pumping is too superficial. The suggestion about cash reserves is excellent. If a liquidity black swan really hits in 2026... we need to keep some powder dry. I hold onto Bitcoin and Ethereum tightly; I don't even look at those flashy green and red tokens. Interest expenses approaching a trillion dollars sound outrageous; it can’t not affect crypto, that’s unrealistic. --- Instead of researching new tokens every day, it’s better to understand what the Federal Reserve really wants to do. --- Leverage positions have long been closed; now we’re just waiting to see the show. 2026 will be quite a mess. --- Those who incite chasing hot topics are basically just trying to scam you. This article is straightforward enough. --- Debt refinancing... do you still think they can just print money to cover it? Wake up, everyone.

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MEVHunter

· 01-04 13:44

4.1 trillion debt refinancing? This is the real mempool-level "congestion," more deadly than any gas war... Cash reserves need to be taken seriously.

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NeverVoteOnDAO

· 01-04 13:30

I've long seen through it; this debt crisis is indeed the main issue. Those who are always shouting about airdrops and chasing new coins should really take a moment to look at the macro environment. Bitcoin and Ethereum are indeed more stable; they've been shifting towards mainstream assets since last year. Altcoins are just too exhausting. The pressure in 2026 is really no small matter; holding some cash is truly necessary. Interest expenses approaching one trillion? That number is too outrageous. How could the Federal Reserve keep raising interest rates? Liquidity exhaustion is the biggest killer; it's more painful than any rug pull. Contract leverage and similar things should have been cleared long ago; I haven't seen many that actually made a profit.

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fren.eth

· 01-04 13:27

I've already said it, 2026 is the real test. Don't be fooled by the ups and downs of altcoins. --- On the day liquidity dries up, nothing can be saved. It's better to hold solid BTC and ETH. --- The Federal Reserve's tricks will eventually be paid off; crypto is just a sacrificial pawn. --- Many people are still chasing meme coins, unaware that the macro game has already been decided. --- With data laid out like this, are there still people following the trend to buy contracts? Wake up, brother. --- Instead of stressing over which project can multiply a hundred times, it's better to reduce leverage now. Truly. --- Interest expenses are approaching one trillion, and no matter how you look at this number, it can't hold up. --- The easing policies of 2020 will never return. Stop dreaming. --- Cash is king; everything else is an illusion. --- Those KOLs who fooled you into chasing hot topics have long since cashed out and run away.

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