Minerers Under Pressure: Bitcoin Fluctuates Around 90K as Structural Pressure Intensifies

Volatility takes over the Bitcoin market this Tuesday, with the asset fluctuating near US$ 91,150 after another failed attempt to break above the US$ 90,000 barrier. The level remains a critical liquidity zone, where sell orders accumulate and limit more aggressive movements. The absence of directional capital keeps BTC confined within a narrow range, reflecting the fragile balance between buyers and sellers in a market with reduced depth.

The Miner Crisis and Energy Reallocation

While the price remains in consolidation, the fundamental scenario reveals more severe pressures. Recent data from VanEck indicate a 4% drop in the network’s hash rate— the sharpest since the first half of 2024—coinciding with a 9% monthly retracement in Bitcoin’s value. The 30-day realized volatility reached 45%, a level not seen since April 2025, forcing less efficient operators to shut down equipment.

The immediate catalyst came from Xinjiang: about 400,000 machines were deactivated in 24 hours, removing approximately 1.3 GW of capacity from the network. The reason is straightforward—energy reallocation to artificial intelligence data centers, an activity that offers higher margins than cryptocurrency mining. According to estimates by Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush, up to 10% of the global hash rate could be permanently lost in this process. This reorganization tends to concentrate the sector among operators with access to cheaper energy, raising the structural entry barrier.

Cost Compression and Economic Infeasibility

For the standard Bitmain S19 XP equipment, the breakeven price fell from US$ 0.12 to US$ 0.077 per kWh in twelve months—a 36% reduction. Operations that do not keep pace with this rapid compression face an increasing risk of insolvency. Still, VanEck data map at least 13 countries with some degree of state support for mining, seeking energy or monetary sovereignty. This diversification may curb additional hash rate losses if Xinjiang’s shutdown is partially reversed.

Technical Indicators Suggest Weakening of Selling Pressure

Contrary to the apparent weakness of the price, technical setups are beginning to show constructive signals. On the three-day chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) forms higher lows while BTC makes lower lows—classic bullish divergence. Analysts like Jelle highlight that this pattern, observed in previous cycles, preceded significant movements. The MACD indicator also shows moving average convergence compatible with weakening of the selling momentum.

Complementing this reading, recurring rejections at the 200-period simple and exponential moving averages (200SMA and EMA) delineate a dynamic control zone. As long as BTC remains below these averages, the probability of lateral continuation or new support tests remains high. Only a recovery with significant volume could restore a more solid bullish structure.

Reduced Liquidity and Short Positions

The environment of compressed liquidity amplifies sensitivity to smaller operations. Recent data point to short positions totaling around US$ 250 million in Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana— a move interpreted as protection against correction risk, not an aggressive directional bet. Still, in a market with limited depth, the impact of these positions becomes more relevant.

As the year-end approaches, traders have reduced exposure to preserve accumulated gains. This seasonal behavior contributes to a retracement of global liquidity, increasing the likelihood of abrupt moves in the absence of new catalysts. QCP Capital notes that the Christmas week tends to amplify both continuations and quick reactions to macroeconomic data.

Bitcoin Diverges from Gold in a Risk-Off Environment

While gold and silver hit all-time highs amid macroeconomic uncertainties, Bitcoin does not follow the same capital flow, contrary to historical patterns of positive correlation in flight-to-safety environments. With the metal approaching US$ 4,500 per ounce, the BTC/XAU pair indicates a relative loss of value for the digital asset, suggesting possible technical compression.

Recovery Outlook: Favorable History After Capitulation

Historically, drops in the hash rate have been followed by positive Bitcoin returns in 65% of cases after 90 days. During extended hash contraction periods of 90 days, the average return over six months was 72%, suggesting that miner capitulation often coincides with exhaustion of selling pressure. The ongoing process, although painful, eliminates marginal agents who needed to liquidate assets to cover immediate costs, reducing structural pressure in the medium term.

The market now awaits a more consistent influx of buying capital to confirm emerging technical signals and rescue BTC from the sideways consolidation that has held it for weeks.