SOL only needs a 10% fluctuation to trigger $400 million in liquidations

According to the latest data, the Solana ecosystem is facing a delicate risk moment. Coin Bureau analysis shows that if SOL price rises by 10%, $217 million in short positions could be liquidated; if it falls by 10%, $183 million in long positions are at risk. This means that a total of $400 million in leveraged positions are at a critical point, with dense accumulation of both long and short positions, and any small fluctuation could trigger a chain of liquidations.

Signs of Imbalance in the Leverage Structure

From the liquidation data, the distribution of long and short positions shows an interesting asymmetry. Short positions ($217 million) are slightly more than long positions ($183 million), reflecting a cautious market attitude towards SOL’s short-term gains. Considering SOL has already risen 8.11% over the past 7 days, this asymmetric distribution is likely due to traders’ concerns about further upward potential.

Currently, SOL’s price fluctuates around $132 (latest data shows the price at $134.49), meaning the liquidation prices are approximately $145 (upward) and $119 (downward). From a technical perspective, SOL is in a short-term upward channel, which puts real pressure on short positions.

Amplified Risks in the Context of Liquidity Exhaustion

It is worth noting that this $400 million liquidation risk occurs within a specific time window. Data shows that in December 2025, cryptocurrency derivatives trading volume hit a new low for the year, indicating a significant decline in leveraged traders’ participation. This environment of liquidity exhaustion actually amplifies the potential impact of liquidations—when market participants decrease, liquidations of the same scale can trigger larger price swings.

In other words, these $400 million positions might only cause normal fluctuations in a liquid market, but in the current relatively thin trading environment, the chain reaction of liquidations could be more intense.

Short-term Pressure Point Analysis

Looking at recent price movements, SOL has performed quite strongly—up 2.96% in 24 hours and 8.11% over 7 days. While this upward momentum benefits longs, it also continually pushes toward the liquidation price levels above. Based on current trends, if SOL continues to rise by 10-12%, it could trigger a large-scale liquidation of the $217 million short positions.

This could create an interesting market dynamic: short liquidations would further push prices higher, triggering more stop-losses among shorts, forming a potential “liquidation cascade.” Conversely, if the price pulls back, longs will face similar pressure.

Summary

The current liquidation structure of SOL reflects a highly tense market state. The $400 million leveraged positions are concentrated within a mere ±10% price range, which is already an extremely crowded scenario in the crypto market. Considering derivatives liquidity has dried up and SOL has recently shown strong performance, the probability of triggering liquidations in the short term is not low.

For traders, this presents both risk and opportunity—liquidations are often accompanied by sharp volatility, but they also suggest that the market structure could undergo significant adjustments. The key points to watch are whether SOL can break through the $145 liquidation line or find support around $119, as these levels will determine the market’s next direction.