Bitcoin Faces Upward Hurdle at $90K: Miner Pressure Amplifies Consolidation

Wall Street week started with Bitcoin suffering continuous rejections around the US$ 90,000 mark, devaluing to US$ 87,700 and remaining trapped in a tight sideways range. The technical level continues to serve as a critical liquidity point, acting as a short-term control barrier over the past few weeks. Currently trading at US$ 91.16K with a 1.58% increase in the last 24 hours, the asset continues oscillating without a clear direction, reflecting the deadlock between buyers and sellers.

Structural Pressure: Cascading Capitulation in Mining

The root of the weakening lies not only in technical behavior but also in miner capitulation. Data from VanEck indicate a 4% drop in the hash rate—its most severe since mid-2024—coinciding with a 9% decrease in Bitcoin’s price in the same period. The 30-day realized volatility spiked to 45%, surpassing levels only seen in April 2025.

This compression forces margin operators to shut down equipment to avoid operational losses. The process tends to ease structural selling pressure by eliminating agents who need to liquidate positions to cover immediate costs. However, in the short term, it amplifies consolidation dynamics.

Energy Reallocation: Artificial Intelligence Gains Ground

A specific catalyst accelerated this process: about 400,000 machines were shut down in Xinjiang province within just 24 hours, removing approximately 1.3 GW of capacity from the grid. The decision reflects energy reallocation to artificial intelligence data centers, which currently offer higher margins than Bitcoin mining.

Analysts estimate that up to 10% of the global hash rate could be permanently lost. This reorganization is likely to concentrate mining in large operators with access to cheaper energy, significantly raising the sector’s entry barrier. Simultaneously, cost compression is real: equipment like the Bitmain S19 XP reduced the breakeven electricity price from US$ 0.12 to US$ 0.077 per kWh in a year—a 36% drop.

Signs of Weakening Selling Pressure

Despite apparent fragility, technical indicators are beginning to reorganize. On the three-day chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) forms higher lows while the price makes lower lows—a classic bullish divergence that historically precedes significant reversals.

Large institutional investors have also repositioned. Short positions combined in Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana reach US$ 250 million, a move interpreted more as tactical protection than an aggressive bet. This stance suggests the market still contemplates scenarios of prolonged consolidation, not a crash.

The Upward Barrier Persists in Low Liquidity

The inability to recover US$ 90,000 coincides with structural liquidity reduction. Many traders have reduced exposure near year-end to preserve accumulated gains—a seasonal behavior that amplifies sensitivity to smaller operations and increases volatility.

As analysts highlight, the reduced depth of the order book makes directional moves more fragile. Without consistent inflow of buying capital accompanied by significant volume, the price will continue testing lower zones in search of sufficient demand to absorb supply.

Decoupling from Gold and Broader Constructive Signals

While gold and silver hit all-time highs amid risk aversion, Bitcoin does not follow the same capital flow—contrary to the traditionally positive correlation observed. The BTC/XAU ratio indicates a relative loss of value for the crypto asset, suggesting a possible technical compression that could resolve with a directional move in either direction.

On the four-hour chart, recurring rejections at the 200-period simple and exponential moving averages define dynamic resistance. Reclaiming this level remains a necessary condition for restoring a consistent bullish structure.

Historical Perspective: Frequent Recovery After Miner Capitulation

Historical data provide encouraging context. Drops in the hash rate have been followed by positive Bitcoin returns in 65% of cases after 90 days. During periods of hash rate contraction over 90-day windows, the average six-month return reached 72%—suggesting miner capitulation often coincides with exhaustion of selling pressure.

At least 13 countries are already involved in Bitcoin mining with some degree of state support, aiming for energy or monetary sovereignty. This diversification and institutionalization tend to stabilize the network in the long term, even amid regional capital reallocations.

Waiting for the Next Move

The market remains stuck in the upward trap while awaiting a catalyst to restore capital flow with a clear direction. The combination of bullish divergence in indicators, marginal miner capitulation, reduced structural selling pressure, and a history of recovery after contraction provides a foundation for cautious optimism—provided liquidity returns and volume accompanies the rebound.