Bitcoin's price fluctuations are closely related to its unique halving cycle. According to historical data analysis, Bitcoin's issuance is halved approximately every four years, and this mechanism has been accompanied by significant price increases in the past three cycles. After the completion of the fourth halving in 2024, market participants have developed new expectations for the 2026 trend.

From a historical perspective, the price performance after the first three halvings has been quite impressive. The 2012 halving triggered a surge in 2013, the 2016 halving propelled the 2017 market boom, and the 2020 halving initiated the upward cycle in 2021. Will the 2024 halving continue this pattern? The key lies in the economics of scarcity—when miners' rewards are halved every four years, the pressure of new supply decreases, which theoretically supports the price.

However, reality is more complex. Past halving cycles that boosted prices often required additional catalysts. Previous bull markets benefited from abundant liquidity—such as the large-scale economic stimulus in 2020-2021 and the rapid growth of the DeFi ecosystem. The complete end of the interest rate hike cycle is yet to be observed, and the Fed's balance sheet reduction policy may continue to constrain the performance of risk assets overall.

It is also important to pay attention to institutional capital movements. Although difficult to capture precisely, recent exchange fund flow data indeed reflect that some participants are gradually accumulating positions. This may indicate that professional investors are preparing for the potential 2026 cycle.

A special reminder is that past success does not guarantee future replication. The environment facing this halving cycle is different from previous ones—lacking the extraordinary liquidity brought by pandemic stimulus and the initial DeFi boom. Monitoring the hash rate dynamics of the Bitcoin network is also worthwhile, as a decline in hash rate could impact network security and create negative feedback. Caution should be exercised regarding historical patterns, while maintaining ongoing observation of market fundamentals.