Bitcoin fluctuates under pressure at 90K: when the technical recovery will go beyond the price

Bitcoin faces a critical crossroads this week. Trading around US$ 91,370, with a 1.94% increase in 24 hours, the asset remains trapped in a congestion zone, oscillating between breakout attempts and returns to the US$ 87-88 thousand range. The US$ 90,000 resistance remains impenetrable, acting as a wall of sell orders that blocks more decisive movements. Unlike other assets that capitalize on the macroeconomic uncertainty scenario, Bitcoin remains decoupled. While gold and silver surge to all-time highs, the crypto asset lags behind, breaking historical patterns of positive correlation during risk aversion periods.

The Chart Speaks More Than the Price

Looking at the four-hour chart, contradictory signals emerge that define the current moment. The 200-period simple moving average (200SMA) acts as a dynamic barrier, systematically rejecting attempts to advance. As long as the price remains below this zone, the short-term structure remains fragile, favoring support tests over new breakouts.

However, on the three-day chart, a technical phenomenon gains strength: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) marks higher lows while the price remains low. This classic bullish divergence suggests weakening selling pressure. Historically, similar setups preceded significant movements in previous cycles, although isolated divergences do not guarantee anything.

The relationship between Bitcoin and gold offers another perspective. With the metal approaching US$ 4,500 per ounce, the BTC/XAU pair indicates a relative loss of value of the crypto asset when analyzed over the last 90 days. This technical compression suggests a possible recalibration of forces in the market.

Short Positions on the Rise: US$ 250 Million Under Watch

Large investors have opened bets against Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana simultaneously, accumulating short positions of approximately US$ 250 million. The move does not represent an aggressive bet against the market but rather a hedging strategy against the risk of further corrections. Its impact, however, amplifies in an environment of reduced liquidity.

Order book depth has shrunk significantly. With the year-end approaching, institutional operators have reduced exposures to preserve gains, increasing market sensitivity to smaller movements. Without substantial buying volume, the price continues testing lower zones in search of sufficient demand to absorb the supply.

Miners in Capitulation: When Profitability Explodes into the Air

The pressure affects not only traders. The network is experiencing its most stressful period for miners. The hash rate dropped 4%, the sharpest decline since the first half of 2024, coinciding with a 9% monthly retracement in Bitcoin’s price. The 30-day realized volatility exceeded 45%, a level not seen since April 2025.

The main trigger was the shutdown of approximately 400,000 machines in Xinjiang province, removing about 1.3 GW of capacity in just 24 hours. The reason? Reallocation of energy to artificial intelligence data centers, which offer higher margins than Bitcoin mining. Analysts estimate that up to 10% of the global hash rate could be permanently lost.

The Rise in Operating Costs

The Bitmain S19 XP model exemplifies the brutal reality: the breakeven electricity price fell from US$ 0.12 to US$ 0.077 per kWh in a year—a 36% reduction. Operators who do not keep pace with this compression face increasing economic infeasibility.

Despite the difficulties, at least 13 countries already incorporate Bitcoin mining with some level of state support, pursuing energy or monetary sovereignty. This structural backing tends to preserve efficient operators while eliminating marginal agents, reducing selling pressure in the medium term.

History Points to Reversal

The data does not lie: when the hash rate drops, Bitcoin tends to recover. In 65% of historical cases, there were positive returns after 90 days of hash rate decline. During longer contraction periods, the average return over six months reached 72%.

Miner capitulation, however uncomfortable, usually coincides with the exhaustion of selling pressure. While the market awaits a more consistent influx of buying capital, technical indicators whisper that not all is lost. The recovery of the US$ 90,000 resistance with significant volume remains the critical confirmation for a new bull cycle.