#比特币与代币化黄金的对比 How to interpret gold trends? A complete breakdown of three strategies—essential for beginners

Look at the 30-minute chart. Gold is currently firmly controlled by the bears, with very weak rebounds. Multiple attempts to push above key levels have failed repeatedly; the bulls just don’t have the strength.

Here are some core points to remember:

• Overall direction: Prices have fallen quite a bit recently; now it’s just a correction and oscillation—don’t expect a reversal

• Range of fluctuation: Between 4274 and 4403, back and forth

• Trend characteristics: A typical consolidation phase during a downtrend—attempts to push up are suppressed, while support levels are tested and cause slight rebounds

• Volume signals: No volume during rebounds, but strong volume during declines, indicating market sentiment still favors the bears

Next, here are three possible scenarios:

1. **60% probability: Continue to break lower**
If the 4274 support level is broken, gold prices are likely to head straight for 4200, possibly even lower. Keep an eye on the dollar’s movement, the waning of safe-haven buying, and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve.

2. **30% probability: Range-bound consolidation, tug-of-war between bulls and bears**
If neither side can break through those key levels, gold will fluctuate between 4274 and 4403. This often happens ahead of major data releases like non-farm payrolls or CPI, as the market waits for signals.

3. **10% probability: Volume breakout and a rebound**
This requires a major positive catalyst—such as escalating geopolitical tensions, a sudden dovish shift from the Fed, or unexpectedly weak employment data. In this case, gold might break through 4403 and attack 4450 to 4500. Be cautious of false breakouts; only a volume-supported and confirmed breakout counts.

A quick reminder: this analysis is based on short-term technicals. Actual trading should also consider fundamentals, and risk management must be prioritized.