#预测市场 Seeing the probability of BTC breaking $100,000 within the year on Polymarket drop to 11%, this number is quite interesting. To be honest, it more reflects real-time market sentiment rather than an absolute truth—prediction markets are essentially collective bets.

The key is how to use this information. If you're copying aggressive traders, they might still be betting on a rebound above $100,000, but the current probability data indicates that the risk-reward ratio has become more skewed. The expected distribution between $95,000 (32% probability) and a breakdown below $80,000 (24% probability) shows that the market's current consensus is actually more inclined toward "testing downward."

This is the time to adjust your copying strategy: if you originally followed aggressive longs, you may need to reassess your position management and stop-loss settings—considering what consequences a 11% low-probability event could cause if it occurs. Conversely, if skilled traders start lightening their positions or setting up defensive strategies at this stage, it’s worth paying attention.

When the probability of a downward move increases, it’s often the best time to test a trader’s execution ability and risk management skills. Data is just a mirror; what it reflects is human nature.