## Federal Reserve Minutes Approaching, BTC/USD Volatility Intensifies—Institutional Divergence Highlights 2026 Outlook

Amid a quiet end-of-year trading environment, Bitcoin has recently oscillated around the key $90,000 level, with the latest data showing BTC at $91,570, up 1.95% in the past 24 hours, but failing to break through effectively. Alongside changes in liquidity conditions earlier this year, this round of volatility is sparking intense market discussions about future trends.

### Low Trading Volume Limits Upside Momentum

From the market performance perspective, Bitcoin has fluctuated within the $89,670 to $91,810 range, while Ethereum hovers near $3,150, with a 1.42% increase. However, it is important to note that the trading support behind these price movements remains limited.

QCP Capital notes that multiple attempts to push above the $90,000 round number have lacked sufficient market participation. The key reason is a structural shift following the previous options expiry—Open Interest has dropped sharply by nearly 50%, indicating many traders have chosen to wait and exit. This structural change directly impacts market makers’ hedging behavior: before and after options expiry, market makers switch from a long Gamma to an upward-facing short Gamma stance, which restricts positive feedback effects during price increases.

### Capital Outflows and Selective Allocation Coexist

More noteworthy is the movement of funds. According to latest CoinShares data, digital asset investment products saw a total outflow of $446 million last week, with Bitcoin products alone losing $443 million and Ethereum products $59.5 million. This data vividly reflects investors’ phased cautiousness toward mainstream cryptocurrencies.

However, XRP and Solana-related products recorded net inflows during the same period, indicating that funds are not entirely retreating from the crypto market but are instead being selectively allocated. In contrast, precious metals performed strongly in 2025—gold rose about 60% for the year, and silver surged approximately 150%. This asset rotation further highlights the market’s emotional volatility.

### Divergence Between Corporate Buying and Institutional Attitudes

It is worth noting that corporate entities remain inclined to increase holdings. According to SEC filings from a strategic Bitcoin holding company, the firm purchased 1,229 BTC between December 22 and 28 at an average price of $88,568, increasing its total holdings to 672,497 BTC. The funding came from a stock issuance plan, showing that institutions still have interest in deploying capital at lower BTC/USD levels.

Meanwhile, in the US stock market, crypto-related stocks are under pressure: Coinbase’s stock fell 1.3%, and the strategic Bitcoin company’s stock declined 2.2%. This contrast between rising spot holdings and declining stock prices reflects the complex outlook investors have on crypto assets.

### Fed Policy Expectations and Macro Liquidity in Focus

Investors are closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes on Tuesday, which will provide key clues about the Fed’s interest rate path into 2026. Additionally, the New York Fed data shows banks borrowed $25.95 billion through the standing repo facility, a figure typically rising at quarter-end or year-end, serving as a barometer of short-term liquidity pressures.

### Technical Perspective: Key Levels Determine Market Direction

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin Magazine analysts believe the market remains within an expanding wedge pattern, with multiple rejections at lower prices indicating weakening downside momentum. To regain control, Bitcoin needs to break above $91,400 resistance and establish itself above $94,000.

If a weekly close above $94,000 can be achieved, further upside potential opens, targeting $101,000 and even $108,000, though significant resistance levels will be encountered along the way. On the downside, $84,000 is seen as a critical support; a break below could lead to rapid declines toward the $72,000–$68,000 zone, with a further breach of $68,000 increasing the risk of deeper retracement.

### "Super Bull" and Bear Perspectives Clash

Looking ahead to 2026, clear internal market disagreements have emerged.

**Bull Camp Remains Optimistic**: Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin could break $500,000 around 2030, driven by ETF demand and ongoing corporate accumulation. Ark Invest founder Cathie Wood last month proposed a "pessimistic scenario" of $50,000 by 2030, with a "bullish scenario" reaching $120,000, believing Bitcoin will gradually be viewed as "digital gold" and an inflation hedge. Michael Saylor, CEO of a strategic Bitcoin company, offers an even more extreme path, projecting $1.3 million in 10 years and $17 million in 20 years.

John Glover, former Barclays managing director and now Chief Investment Officer at crypto lending platform Ledn, states that while technical charts suggest short-term upside potential, certainty remains limited. He expects Bitcoin to possibly trade sideways or slightly lower over the coming weeks to months, gradually increasing long positions in the $71,000–$84,000 range, viewing this as an Elliott Wave Wave 4 correction. Once the bottom of Wave 4 is confirmed in Q1/Q2 2026, he anticipates a rebound targeting $145,000–$160,000.

**Bearish Voices Are Also Strong**: Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone believes Bitcoin could see a significant decline within the next year, with an extreme scenario dropping to $10,000. His reasoning is based on the competition for limited global resources among various investment sectors, especially as the rapid rise of AI industries has diverted some risk capital away from crypto.

### Outlook and Caution

Overall, although Bitcoin recently hit a new all-time high of $126,080 before pulling back, there is a notable divergence in market perceptions of its long-term prospects. Liquidity fluctuations, risk appetite shifts, and macroeconomic uncertainties could still lead to substantial volatility.

Market participants warn that investor sentiment and psychological expectations can shift rapidly in the short term. If the economy remains resilient and liquidity conditions improve, risk assets may have a better year; but if macro shocks intensify, markets could re-enter high volatility or deep retracement phases. As key events like the Fed minutes approach, investors should closely monitor liquidity changes and macro expectations shifts.