#预测市场 Seeing Trump's gold card sales drop from $1.3 billion to "possibly zero" really says a lot. Polymarket directly called out the data, saying it doesn't meet the standard of "final approval and payment completed"—this is a classic numbers game.

Having been in the blockchain space for years, I've seen many tricks like this: first releasing a shiny big number to attract attention, then waiting for retail investors to take the bait. The role of prediction markets is exactly here; they aren't afraid of the powerful and dare to speak with data. An 89% probability points to zero sales—what's behind this? Either the real data is far less glamorous than the hype, or there are no actual completed payment orders.

The key is to learn how to identify this information gap. When official statements and independent prediction platforms' judgments differ so much, smart people should know which side to lean toward. Don't be fooled by pretty numbers—that's why those who have been in this market for a long time always ask the old question: "Where are the real transaction data?" Everything on the chain should be traceable; statements without real backing are just air, no matter how loud they are.