XRP's comeback against BNB: Institutions invest a new altcoin order with $1.37 billion in ETF funds

Entering 2026, the power dynamics of the crypto market are being reshaped. XRP, with a market cap surpassing BNB, officially solidifies its position as the fourth-largest cryptocurrency globally. The core driver behind this change is institutional funding continuously increasing its holdings in XRP ETFs—approximately $13.6 million net inflow within just 24 hours, bringing the total net inflow to $1.18 billion, with total net assets reaching $1.37 billion. This is not only a ranking shift but also a signal of market structural adjustment.

Institutional Funding Choice: Why XRP

Looking at the ETF performance of other mainstream coins during the same period, the phenomenon of institutional reflow is not isolated. According to the latest data, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of about $471 million on the same trading day, and Ethereum ETFs attracted $174 million. But XRP’s growth rate is more structurally significant—it is carving out new institutional allocation options outside of BTC and ETH.

Why Are Institutions Suddenly Interested in XRP

There are three key factors supporting this shift. First, legal disputes are a thing of the past. The court ruling in July 2023 confirmed that XRP does not constitute a security in the context of exchange-automated sales, allowing institutional investors to allocate with confidence. Second, Ripple’s fundraising exceeded market expectations—completing a $500 million strategic financing round led by Fortress Investment Group and Citadel Securities, valued at $40 billion, indicating that Wall Street giants are voting with real money for this ecosystem. Third, XRP’s payment ecosystem is expanding, from cross-border payments to central bank digital currency collaborations, gradually broadening application scenarios.

ETF’s “Compliance-Driven” Growth Effect

The continuous inflow into XRP ETFs essentially reflects strong demand from institutional investors for compliant investment channels. Unlike direct exchange purchases, ETFs offer institutional-grade security and convenience. Franklin Templeton’s XRP spot ETF holdings have surpassed $200 million, with monthly growth exceeding 100%, a rate outstanding among all mainstream coin ETFs.

On-Chain Data Resonance: Supply Tightening

Supporting the price is not only capital inflow but also supply-side tightening. According to Glassnode data, the XRP balance on centralized exchanges has fallen to about 1.6 billion tokens, a new low since 2018, down approximately 57% from the peak at the end of 2025.

What does this mean? It indicates decreasing liquidity and easing selling pressure. As ETFs continue to absorb tokens and exchange reserves decline, the constraining effect on supply will gradually become evident.

Supply Tightening Timeline

Based on related analysis, if ETF capital inflows continue at the current rate, by mid-2026, ETF assets could reach $5 billion, with nearly 2.6 billion XRP tokens exiting circulation—about 4% of the circulating supply being locked. This proportion may seem small, but in the crypto market’s supply-demand dynamics, it can have a significant impact.

Technical Confirmation

Price and technical indicators also confirm this trend. Over the past 24 hours, XRP’s price has risen about 3.44%, approaching $2.08. From a technical perspective:

• RSI remains in a healthy bullish zone, not yet overbought
• MACD shows a clear bullish crossover, indicating ongoing upward momentum
• The past 7 days have seen an 11.14% increase, suggesting this is not just a short-term rebound

In contrast, BNB declined over 1% during the same period, showing clear pressure. This “decoupling” precisely confirms the change in market structure.

Possible Future Pathways

If institutional demand persists, this rally could go far beyond a short-term rebound. Several key points to watch:

• Whether ETF assets continue to grow, directly reflecting institutional demand strength
• Whether XRP balances on exchanges keep decreasing, affecting supply-side constraints
• Commercial adoption of Ripple’s payment ecosystem, which determines long-term fundamentals

When capital inflows, supply tightening, and technical indicators all turn positive simultaneously, it often signals that a larger market move is brewing.

Summary

XRP surpassing BNB to become the fourth-largest crypto asset is driven by institutional demand for compliant investment channels. Although its ETF assets at $1.37 billion still lag behind BTC and ETH, the growth rate and structural significance are more critical—they represent a reshaping of the altcoin market capital flow. When institutional demand, supply tightening, and technical signals align positively, XRP is at a crucial turning point not seen in nearly a decade. The key question is whether this momentum can be sustained, rather than short-term price fluctuations.