#预测市场 Seeing the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 within the year on Polymarket drop from 11% to 10%, I find it quite interesting. This is not a sign of pessimism, but rather the market voting with real money — prediction markets are one of the most elegant applications of Web3.

In traditional finance, we can only passively receive analysts' forecasts, but on decentralized prediction platforms like Polymarket, everyone can participate based on their own judgment. The price itself becomes a crystallization of collective wisdom. A 10% probability means market participants believe there's a low chance of reaching $100,000 again this year, but 32% are still betting on $95,000 — reflecting genuine, diverse viewpoints clashing.

This is the true charm of prediction markets. They break down information asymmetry and allow market forces to emerge naturally. Instead of fixating on a specific number, it's better to ask: why are people willing to bet real money on these predictions? It’s precisely because this transparent, trustless mechanism can stimulate the most honest market signals.

Decentralized prediction markets are reshaping how we forecast the future, serving as an excellent example of Web3 empowerment.