Is the risk aversion rotation reappearing? Whales abandoning coins for gold, the 2026 showdown between gold and Bitcoin

The asset rotation story of 2025 is already quite clear: gold surged 65% to reach a new all-time high of $4,500, tokenized gold XAUT increased by 13% in Q4, while Bitcoin fell 6.3% for the year and dropped 24% in Q4. Now the question is—will this risk-averse rotation continue into 2026? On-chain data and whale movements provide an interesting signal.

Why Gold Outperformed and Why Bitcoin Underperformed

The macro environment in 2025 was very friendly to safe-haven assets. The US economy faced multiple shocks: inflation pressures, fiscal uncertainties, and government shutdown risks. Against this backdrop, capital choices were straightforward—flee to safe havens. What does the divergence between gold and XAUT indicate? It shows that investors not only trust traditional gold but are also beginning to accept on-chain gold as a new form.

But there is a subtle point here. By November 2025, inflation had fallen to 2.7%, with core CPI and PCE even dropping below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Theoretically, easing macro pressures should have led to a rebound in risk assets. But what actually happened? XAUT continued to rise in Q4, while Bitcoin kept falling. This indicates that market confidence in the macro outlook remains insufficient.

What Are On-Chain Whales Doing?

Data is more convincing than opinions. According to on-chain monitoring, after a whale lost $18.8 million on Ethereum, over the past 7 hours, it spent $14.58 million to buy 3,299 XAUT at an average price of $4,421. This is not a typical stop-loss but a directional asset allocation adjustment.

Even more interestingly, six wallets associated with a single entity purchased a total of 3,102 XAUT, spending $13.7 million. Such concentrated buying behavior usually reflects large investors’ consensus view of the market—they are making defensive moves against potential macro uncertainties.

The Deeper Meaning of Market Divergence

What does this table reflect? It shows that the market is actively choosing. Investors are no longer simply worried about volatility but are actively seeking “safer returns.” This divergence is reflected not only in prices but also in capital flows. The actions in the Chinese market also illustrate this—silver rose 147% due to export restrictions, and China’s largest gold producer Zijin Mining is accelerating overseas acquisitions. All point in the same direction: large funds are positioning in gold.

Will It Repeat in 2026?

Personal opinion: if macro uncertainties persist, risk-averse rotation is likely to continue. There are several reasons:

First, on-chain data does not lie. Whale behavior always leads the market by a step; their current choices are preparing for future risks. Second, the safe-haven attribute of gold has been reaffirmed, and once confirmed, it’s hard to change in the short term. Third, if the Federal Reserve faces new economic pressures in 2026, capital will lean even more toward safe assets.

However, it’s important to note that individual cases do not represent the whole. There is also a large amount of capital actively building positions in BTC, ETH, and other mainstream assets. The market’s interesting aspect is that some people exit in fear, while others enter in greed. The final price trend depends on the battle between these two forces.

Summary

The risk-averse rotation phenomenon in 2025 is already very clear: gold and XAUT performed far better than Bitcoin, not only in price differences but also reflecting active capital reallocation. The behavior of on-chain whales confirms this trend—they are voting with real money, choosing gold over crypto assets.

Will it repeat in 2026? Based on macro environment, on-chain signals, and capital flows, this possibility exists. But the key depends on whether the US economy can truly stabilize and whether new uncertainties will emerge in the coming year. If risks persist, the risk-averse rotation will continue. The logic is simple, but often the simplest logic is the most accurate.