#预测市场 The prediction market Kalshi's recent move is quite interesting. They initially submitted a contract for US college athlete transfers to the CFTC, but then NCAA issued a statement saying that student athletes could be harassed, threatened, or have their competitions compromised, and accused them of disrupting recruitment... Then Kalshi backtracked and said, "Although we submitted it, it might not go live."

This is a typical test-and-retreat approach. Essentially, it touches on the sensitive nerves of the US sports industry—imagine if there were a market allowing people to freely bet on athlete transfers and performance, could the psychological pressure on student athletes be small? The risk of manipulation and black-market operations would also be high.

So what does this tell us? Even in a free-market country like the US, prediction markets need to have boundaries. Not everything that can be traded should be traded. Kalshi's withdrawal is actually a reminder that, no matter how innovative crypto projects are, they still need to consider social acceptance. This round of risk management awareness is much stronger than before.