#预测市场平台 Seeing both Satoshi Nakamoto and Coinbase CEO promoting prediction markets, I need to calm down and think this through carefully.

Honestly, I do agree with the logic behind prediction markets—placing real money bets is indeed more constraining than social media trash talk. The contrast between a 3% chance of a UK civil war and Musk's "inevitability" can really make people see clearly. The power of economic incentives is right here: lying will cost you money, and that’s more effective than anything else.

But I want to remind everyone that this doesn’t mean prediction markets are the ultimate truth. The 3% on Polymarket is actually the result of a game between market makers and retail traders; low liquidity and large players entering can manipulate the market. Moreover, history has shown many cases where "truth markets" were manipulated. While prediction markets are more rational than social media, they are still far from fully trustworthy.

The real value isn’t to go all-in on them as absolute truth, but to use them as a **reference signal source**. Comparing market probabilities when you see exaggerated news can help you avoid FOMO and panic. But the premise is understanding their limitations—liquidity, manipulation risks, participant structure—all affect pricing.

The secret to long-term survival is to verify information from multiple dimensions and not be hostage to any single voice. Prediction markets are a useful tool to test facts, but always maintain skepticism.