Market pricing for the Fed chair candidate has already shown clear signals of change. After Waller's interview was completed, Polymarket's probability adjusted from previous expectations to 14%, reflecting a significant downward revision of his chances. Meanwhile, Haskett's nomination probability rose to 56%, nearing a half, making him the current leading candidate.

From on-chain and market reactions, such personnel changes at the policy level often influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's future policy direction—especially regarding interest rates and inflation management, where attitudes may differ. The probability for Walsh has decreased from previous levels to 21%, indicating the market is re-pricing the policy tendencies of the three candidates. BlackRock's Rieder is still in the interview stage, and further expectation adjustments may follow.

Such probability shifts in political and economic events are often reflected in the crypto market through capital flows in advance. It is recommended to continuously monitor real-time probability changes on Polymarket and the corresponding capital inflows and outflows—these often reveal the market's true expectations earlier than public commentary.