#预测市场 Seeing Phantom's $3 billion valuation, my first reaction is—another wallet feeling anxious. Stablecoins, debit cards, prediction markets—these new features pile up, seemingly building an ecosystem closed loop, but in reality exposing a problem: pure wallet products can no longer compete.

I've been in this circle long enough to see too many such patterns. Platform-based products always want to lock users into their ecosystem. What does that lead to? Either becoming a subordinate to exchanges or turning into a messy all-in-one that does everything but isn't specialized in anything. Phantom's current strategy is a bit like gambling—trying to find an independent growth curve through high-frequency interaction features like prediction markets.

But there's a trap I must point out: prediction markets sound high-end, but for retail investors, they're just another form of gambling. Don't be fooled by the guise of "value investing." History shows that the more feature-rich a product is, the easier it becomes a tool for cutting leeks. The key question is—are these new features truly improving user retention? Or are they just using fresh concepts to cover up the reality of user churn?

Those who have been around long know that simple, focused products are often more trustworthy than those that try to do everything.