#预测市场 The probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 this year has dropped to only 11%, and the data from Polymarket is becoming increasingly sobering. Just a month ago, some people were shouting "it will definitely break $100,000 by the end of the year," but now it seems like a pipe dream. However, the prediction probability for $95,000 is still 32%, which feels like a more realistic expectation.

Interestingly, prediction markets have now become a barometer. Coinbase CEO is right—it's much more reliable than traditional polls—after all, real money is involved, and everyone has to be responsible for their predictions. Truthful predictions are rewarded, and false ones cost money; this mechanism indeed helps to extract more genuine signals.

The Federal Reserve Chair's predictions are also changing. After Waller's interview, the probability dropped to 14%, while Haskett's shot up to 56%. It seems the market has already given its "answer." The beauty of prediction markets is that you don't have to wait for a press conference; just look at the odds, and you'll know the general direction.