#预测市场 The data changes on Polymarket are worth paying attention to. Waller's probability after the interview has been adjusted down from previous levels to 14%, while Haskett's nomination probability has jumped to 56%—this reflects the market's real-time pricing of the interview outcome.

From the perspective of on-chain prediction markets, such probability contracts often lead traditional public opinion. While most people are still discussing the "successful" narrative of the interview, participants have already given their answers through real money trading: Waller's chances of being elected are relatively weak.

It is worth monitoring the subsequent progress of Walsh and Riedel's interviews. Prediction markets tend to digest information in advance when pricing policymakers. If you are tracking the potential impact of the Federal Reserve Chair candidate on the market, the turning points in this data are often important signals. It is recommended to focus on the flow of positions and the amplitude of odds fluctuations on Polymarket, rather than just the percentage numbers themselves.