#比特币技术分析 Weekly RSI drops to 35, which is an extremely oversold level since January 2023. Historically, during that time, BTC price was in the 15,500-17,000 range, whereas now it has reached 80,500. From a data perspective, the Stochastic RSI indicates the deepest oversold level in the cycle, and the short-term rebound probability is indeed increasing.

However, it is important to note that oversold conditions do not necessarily mean a bottom. Looking at the BTC/NASDAQ 100 ratio, although it is close to the historical bottoming area, mean reversion requires policy support—variables like quantitative easing, fiscal stimulus, and on-chain transfer of securities are still in the expectation stage, with uncertain implementation timing.

The short-term rebound signal is clear, but do not mistake it for a trend reversal. My main focus is: first, whether the rebound can break through the resistance at 78,000-80,000; second, the movements of large whales— the $500 million short position laid out on the night of 10.11 already sent a signal, and subsequent actions of such addresses need to be tracked. Rebounds may occur, but before confirming the direction, we still need to observe on-chain fund flows.