The recent atmosphere in the crypto world has indeed been a bit heavy. Bitcoin's sharp fluctuations have been emotionally taxing, and warnings of financial crises from well-known investors have sparked concerns. Many are repeatedly asking whether they should clear their positions or buy the dip. As an observer who has experienced multiple market cycles, I want to share a core judgment: market risk itself is not the real danger; the lack of response strategies is what truly poses a threat.

First, understanding the situation clearly is crucial. These crisis warnings are not baseless; there are two risk factors behind them that are worth paying attention to.

**First Risk: The Fragility of the Global Debt System**

U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with daily interest payments even exceeding military expenditures. These figures directly reflect the out-of-control scale of debt. More alarmingly, Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 250%, far exceeding the dangerous levels seen during the Greek crisis. Under high interest rate environments combined with enormous debt burdens, the traditional financial system is under immense pressure.

The impact on the crypto market is direct. Most mainstream stablecoins hold a high proportion of reserves in U.S. Treasuries. Once the traditional debt market experiences severe volatility, the liquidity of stablecoins will inevitably be severely affected, which in turn will impact the entire crypto ecosystem's funding.

**Second Risk: Valuation Bubble in the Tech Sector**

NVIDIA's market capitalization is approaching the combined total of the top twenty European companies, which is enough to illustrate the issue. Investment enthusiasm in AI far exceeds what fundamentals can support, with excessive capital inflows widening the gap between investment and practical application. Once the bubble bursts, a correction in tech stocks will inevitably drag down the entire risk asset market, and cryptocurrencies will not be immune.

In the face of such an environment, the key is not passive reaction but making targeted choices after understanding market logic. Risks and opportunities often coexist, and this is the survival rule that crypto market participants need to master.