Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has entered new monthly and quarterly cycle periods, providing us with valuable macro insights. Especially the three-month cycle, which is crucial for judging BTC's overall yearly trend.

Looking back at history, BTC experienced a bearish divergence on the three-month chart last summer—this is the fourth time such a situation has occurred in the past 12 years. Interestingly, each time a three-month divergence appeared, it corresponded with a cycle top for BTC. Since early October, we have been monitoring this signal.

In recent days, the three-month closing has again turned red, consistent with previous cycle patterns. Whenever this occurs, BTC tends to top out and then enter a bear market phase, with the following months usually showing a downward trend.

This judgment aligns with several other technical consensus points: the January, two-week, and weekly charts all show bearish divergence; the diagonal upward trendline has been broken; the 102,000 simple moving average on the weekly chart is creating resistance; the macro RSI is also confirmed below support levels. Overall, the consensus for price decline within the year is much stronger than for a rally.

Unless BTC reconstructs its macro structure, a new high within the year lacks fundamental support. Of course, in the short term, due to the formation of several three-day divergences, a retest around 102,000 cannot be completely ruled out.

The new trend will ultimately test its boundaries, either upward or downward, to truly confirm the direction. My personal annual strategy is: during short-term rebounds, maintain a bearish outlook on altcoins, while looking for BTC's next macro bottom to establish long-term positions.