The market has recently been inquiring about how the Federal Reserve will move this month, but a more noteworthy signal has already emerged—the discreet leak of a rate cut plan targeting 2026.

Let's first discuss the Fed's logic. They are not in a rush; policy shifts require sufficient observation periods. Breaking it down: between 2024 and 2025, interest rates are expected to remain relatively high while gradually bringing inflation back to the target range. By early 2026, as the economy finds a new balance point, the door for rate cuts will truly open.

According to Barclays' forecast framework, the first rate cut is expected to start in March 2026, with a single cut of 25 basis points. The second cut would follow in June, also 25 basis points. This creates a "two-step" pace.

For investors, what is the use of this early information? Rather than being led by short-term volatility, it’s better to start contemplating where the policy turning point might be now. This way, you can position yourself in advance and wait for asset revaluation opportunities.

However, risks should not be overlooked. Inflation could fluctuate repeatedly, economic data might be volatile, and geopolitical situations could change suddenly—all of which could alter the Fed's final decision and pace.

In the short term, the Fed still appears hawkish, and the market is likely to continue oscillating. But with a longer-term perspective, once interest rates truly enter a downtrend, bonds, growth stocks, and even cryptocurrencies could face systemic revaluation. The roadmap has already been roughly outlined; the key is to stay flexible and adjust at any time based on economic data changes.