#美联储政策与降息 Once again, we see an old familiar trap playing out. AI companies are burning money madly to buy computing power, but the actual revenue that can be monetized is far from keeping up with the investment pace—I've seen this pattern in 2017 and 2021, just with different protagonists.

QCP's analysis hits the key point: $2.8 billion in passive funds may flow out of the crypto market, while the AI bubble in the stock market is also brewing to burst. The Federal Reserve has sent a "dovish + hawkish mixed" signal, with possible 2-3 rate cuts next year, but this won't bridge the gap between investment and income.

The key is, once this structural error is exposed, the risk won't stay confined to the AI sector. I've seen too many chain reactions—when a high valuation in one sector collapses, it drags down the entire risk asset pricing system for revaluation. If a stock market correction really happens in 2026, it would be strange if the crypto market can stay unaffected.

The current issue isn't about predicting the direction, but about being cautious of those claiming "rate cuts are good news" with simple logic. In a rate-cut environment, if fundamentals don't keep up, sell-offs will be even fiercer. Instead of chasing immature narratives, it's better to take advantage of the remaining time to clear out positions without real cash flow support. That's the secret to longevity—don't be greedy or timid, always prioritize risk recognition over return expectations.