Recent discussions about global financial risks have heated up again. The investor famous for predicting the 2008 crisis has recently spoken out, predicting a severe financial crisis will occur in 2026. More importantly, he is not just issuing verbal warnings but is actively adjusting his asset allocation—selling off stocks and increasing holdings in precious metals. These practical actions are often more convincing than any analysis report.

After many years of research in the crypto market, I increasingly believe that this is not alarmist talk. More importantly, the crypto space is not an isolated island; macro-financial shocks will inevitably affect on-chain assets. Carefully analyzing several key signals currently present, the risks are already difficult to conceal.

First, look at the true state of global debt. U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with daily interest payments exceeding military spending. What does this mean? The U.S. is daily "mining" the financial system with landmines. At the same time, Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 250%, a figure that even exceeds the peak of the Greek debt crisis. High interest rates combined with high debt form a device that could explode at any moment.

A more critical point often overlooked is the aftereffect of the previous global liquidity expansion. These have now all transformed into debt. The stablecoin market in crypto has reached $260 billion, mainly backed by U.S. Treasuries and dollar assets. If the U.S. debt system encounters problems, can these seemingly "stable" tokens truly remain stable? The answer is quite obvious.

Another signal worth paying attention to is the bubble in the AI sector. Nvidia’s market capitalization has approached the total of the top 20 European listed companies. This phenomenon itself warrants deep reflection—has the industry truly entered a period of explosive growth, or is capital chasing concepts wildly? Moreover, this boom is closely linked to capital flows in the crypto market. Once this bubble begins to deflate, funds will withdraw from multiple sectors simultaneously, including on-chain ecosystems.

Considering these signals, the financial environment around 2026 indeed warrants caution. But this does not mean crypto assets have no opportunities; rather, it calls for more rational discernment. Stablecoins, mainstream cryptocurrencies, and DeFi ecosystems face varying degrees of risk. In this context, the depth of risk awareness determines the quality of investment strategies.