I have carefully examined the 1-hour chart of ETH over the past couple of days. Combining on-chain activity and market sentiment, I believe it is necessary to share the current key levels and the subsequent evolution logic.

**Technical Perspective**

From the candlestick analysis, the previous large bullish candle directly pushed the price to 3068, followed by a slight pullback. Currently, the price is firmly above the MA7 (3017) and EMA7 (3017.8). The short-term moving average system has also completed a bullish crossover with EMA30 (2998.7), forming a clear bullish alignment. The Bollinger Bands are gradually opening upward, with the upper band at 3029.9, and the price is mostly running along the upper band, indicating that the market’s strong momentum is still ongoing.

The most critical level to watch is 3068-3070, which is a previous high. If the price can break through effectively and volume confirms, then the target zone above 3100-3150 becomes natural. On the downside, the middle Bollinger Band at 3000.5 and the MA30 at 2993.9 provide strong support levels. As long as the price does not break below these supports during a pullback, the bullish trend can continue.

Regarding MACD momentum indicators, the DIF (10.76) and DEA (8.06) are both above zero and have formed a golden cross, with the histogram (5.40) gradually lengthening. However, caution is needed here: the DIF is already at a relatively high level. If a bearish divergence appears next, short-term correction should be anticipated.

**On-Chain Data Situation**

According to my on-chain monitoring data, large addresses have been continuously withdrawing ETH from exchanges recently. The net outflow over the past 24 hours reached approximately 120,000 ETH, indicating increasing concentration of holdings and that holders remain confident about the future. Meanwhile, ETH 2.0 staking has hit new highs, and combined with the accelerated burn from EIP-1559, the deflationary effect is strengthening, providing solid fundamental support for the price.

**Any Catalysts in the News?**

Recently, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next year have been heating up, significantly improving risk asset sentiment. Capital inflows into the crypto market have also increased. Additionally, the progress of Ethereum’s Cancun upgrade on the testnet has been smooth, and Layer 2 ecosystem growth is accelerating. These expectations of lower gas fees could further stimulate ecosystem activity.

**How to Navigate This Situation**

For more aggressive traders, a small long position around 3030 with a stop-loss below 3010 could be considered, targeting the first at 3068 and the second at 3100.

For more conservative traders, it’s better to wait until 3068 is clearly broken before pulling back for confirmation and entering longs, or to build positions gradually when the price stabilizes around 3000-3010.

Finally, a note on risk: if the support at 2990 is broken, the short-term bullish structure will be compromised. At that point, it’s advisable to exit and observe, waiting for a clearer opportunity.

The core logic is this—bullish momentum from the technicals is strong enough, on-chain holdings are well locked in, and there are several potential catalysts in the news. No need to guess the top; steadily profit from what the market clearly shows. High-probability swings are the most worthwhile to capture.