This week, the crypto world has been buzzing about Dogecoin. One group is shouting that by 2026, it will reach $0.33, while another warns it could drop back to $0.08. Retail investors are getting overwhelmed—either desperately going all-in or rushing to cut losses. Having dealt with these institutions for years, I can conclude one thing: their predictions are basically "conditional nonsense." Believing even half of them would be a disservice to oneself. Today, let's uncover the pitfalls behind these forecasts.

First, let's see what some of these institutions have been saying recently. CoinCodex remains relatively calm, suggesting DOGE will fluctuate between $0.125 and $0.145 in 2026, showing no major turbulence; DigitalCoinPrice is very optimistic, directly targeting $0.33, citing "market sentiment is warming"; WalletInvestor is even more extreme, predicting a range from $0.083 to $0.256, with an average of $0.171. What kind of prediction is this? It’s a revamped version of the saying "three cobblers with their wits combined are smarter than Zhuge Liang."

At first glance, these opinions seem different, but in reality, they all reflect the same issue: all these predictions are based on "if" scenarios, and none of them can solve DOGE's real dilemma.

Here's the key point. The biggest trap in institutional forecasts is ignoring the dead end of liquidity. DOGE's current real problem isn't market sentiment; it's the lack of genuine capital inflow. The hot money that once fueled its rise has long since withdrawn. How severe is the liquidity shortage? Even a small influx of funds can cause short-term gains, but this cannot form a real trend, let alone sustain upward movement. CoinCodex's "sideways trading" theory sounds safe, but in reality, it's precisely because no one is playing that it looks like this.