#美联储政策与降息 Seeing this analysis from QCP Capital, my mind immediately flashed back to the 2017-2018 cycle. Back then, everyone was chasing hot trends wildly; after ICO projects raised funds for half a year without any output, investors started to panic. The story of AI infrastructure now feels familiar—capital frenzy, but revenues are still coming in slowly.

The Federal Reserve's stance is quite interesting. The dovish rate cut signals, combined with 2-3 market expectations, should have been a boon for crypto and tech stocks, but this time they have become a double-edged sword. The stock market is buoyed by the AI boom, but once the imbalance between investment and income is exposed, it could trigger a chain reaction—similar to the $2.8 billion passive fund outflows.

I've seen this situation during the 2013 crypto boom. Everyone thought they were on the right side of history until the price collapsed, and only then did you realize what "weak valuation fundamentals" really meant. The 2026 stock market revaluation is not alarmist; it's an echo of history—bubbles will burst eventually, it's just a matter of timing and magnitude.

Currently, Morgan Stanley Capital International is still considering the inclusion of digital asset indices, which indicates that market confidence is already on the edge. The smart approach is not to focus solely on the Fed's rate cuts but to look at the underlying cash flows and real growth. Those of us who have experienced multiple cycles should remain sober about claims of "unlimited prospects."