#数字资产动态追踪 The core logic behind the potential rise of the crypto market in 2026 boils down to these three points:

**The interest rate cut window is opening**

Looking at the latest probability data, the chance of a rate cut in January is only 14.9%, but by March it jumps to 51.2%. What does this mean? Overall, 2026 will have a loose monetary policy tone. When interest rates go down, risk assets like Bitcoin tend to be more favored. Currently, BTC is around $85,000, and many institutions see this as a key support level.

**The compliance framework is really shifting**

The stablecoin legislation enacted in the US in 2025 is not just talk—100% reserves, monthly audits, increasingly resembling traditional finance. Globally, stablecoins have already accumulated to $247.4 billion. What does this indicate? Traditional funds like banks and investment funds are starting to take crypto seriously. The ETF proliferation over the past few years has standardized crypto investment processes, making digital assets as easy to include in portfolios as stocks.

**Ecological applications are expanding the imagination space**

The combination of DeFi, DePIN, AI, and blockchain is creating new use cases. Forbes predicts the total market cap of crypto could reach $8 trillion. Currently, it’s around $3.8 trillion, so the potential for doubling still exists.

**Key data points in January**

January 9 Non-Farm Payrolls: Less than 150,000 new jobs and YoY wage growth below 3.5% both point to an expectation of rate cuts. Once the market believes the central bank will loosen policy, risk assets can breathe easier.

January 13 CPI: If core CPI month-over-month is below 0.2%, it can directly boost risk appetite. When these data are released, major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum often experience volatility.

January 27-28 FOMC Meeting: A softer statement or a change in dot plots could trigger a rebound. The order of focus is: Non-Farm Payrolls > CPI > PCE > JOLTS > Retail Sales.

**How to seize this market opportunity**

First, avoid excessive leverage. Before January data is released, volatility will likely increase, and liquidations will happen fastest.

Second, focus on Bitcoin. The $80,000 to $90,000 range offers relatively high safety margins.

Third, don’t just blindly bet on macro expectations. On-chain fund flows and ETF holdings changes provide micro signals that better reflect actual supply and demand.

**The underlying logic is actually quite clear**

Liquidity easing, open compliance frameworks, and rich ecological applications—these three wheels turning together form a solid fundamental for the crypto market. Short-term volatility cannot change the overall trend. As long as you can accurately interpret the January CPI and Non-Farm Payroll data, you can grasp the opportunities in this cycle.