Bloomberg senior analyst Mike McGlone recently pointed out in an article that, based on the 50-week moving average, silver and Bitcoin face completely different pressure directions next year, but both carry significant downside risks.

Let's first look at silver. As of the end of this year, silver is trading at about $72 per ounce, which is a 73% premium over the 50-week moving average. McGlone referenced historical data—such an extreme premium last appeared in 1979. What happened then? Silver surged to $50 the following year, only to undergo a 52% crash, and it took 45 years to recover to the $32.2 level at the end of 1979. The current situation is somewhat similar, and history may repeat itself.

Now, looking at Bitcoin, the scenario is completely opposite. The current price is around $87,000, but it is actually trading at a 13% discount to the 50-week moving average. Does this sound like a buy signal? Quite the opposite. McGlone believes this discount is actually a "bottom of the bear market" signal, but according to historical patterns, the decline could continue to expand to about 55%, meaning it might test the $40,000 level.

One asset is overheated with high premium(, while the other is still undervalued but not yet at a deep discount). The danger for silver comes from its price having severely diverged from fundamentals, making a sharp correction inevitable; for Bitcoin, the concern lies in persistent market sentiment suppression, with the moving averages still exerting significant resistance on the price. Even at a relatively low level, the possibility of a final deep dip remains.