#预测市场 The prediction market line is indeed worth keeping an eye on. Based on CZ's statements, he emphasized two points: first, in the short term, relying on the team's execution ability and full commitment; second, in the long term, the outcome still depends on product iteration and adaptability.

From on-chain data, Polymarket's trading volume during the US election indeed exceeded expectations, but this more reflects event-driven activity rather than a normal trend. The real test will emerge during the mid-term elections in 2026 and subsequent routine events—only projects that can maintain sustained operational momentum and respond quickly to market demands will survive.

Interestingly, CZ highlighted that projects across different tracks will ultimately learn from each other, indicating that the space for differentiated competition is actually limited. Functionality convergence is highly probable, and what ultimately matters are details like capital efficiency, user experience, security, and the team's responsiveness to market changes.

Looking at the three main lines of on-chain US stocks, stablecoins, and prediction markets, the prediction market remains the most uncertain—lacking full market cycle validation, and valuation logic is still being explored. But precisely because of this uncertainty, teams that genuinely focus on product development and avoid rushing for quick profits have the opportunity to build a moat. Short-term volatility is high, but the long-term is the true watershed.