#数字资产动态追踪 Expectations of rate cuts collide with crypto narratives—where is the opportunity window in 2026?

Recently, I came across an analysis report from Barclays Bank, which predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2026—once in March and again in June—and also suggests that the risks of maintaining high interest rates are actually greater. At first glance, this seems like traditional macroeconomic news, but for those involved in crypto, the significance of this signal might be heavier than it appears on the surface.

First, let's talk about consensus. Major Wall Street institutions and the Federal Reserve's own meeting minutes are all pointing in the same direction: the high-interest-rate environment will persist for a while longer, and rate cuts won't happen soon. What does this expectation mean for risk assets like Bitcoin? It indicates that the market has already been digesting this "later, slower" script in advance over the past few months. When the actual rate cuts happen, the impact might not be as strong as expected—in fact, as uncertainty diminishes, we might even see a "sell the news" scenario.

Second, the focus needs to shift from "when to cut" to "why to cut." If rate cuts are truly expected only in 2026, then the reasons behind this easing are particularly critical. If the rate cuts are driven by a soft landing or even a slight economic rebound as a preventive measure, that’s good news for risk assets like $BTC. But if they are prompted by a sharp economic downturn requiring emergency measures, the market will have to endure some pain. As high-beta assets, crypto will amplify the sentiment swings of these two macro paths.

In essence, this expectation sets a clearer macro rhythm for the crypto market in 2026. During the remaining time in 2025, the market may mainly rely on industry narratives—fund flows into spot ETFs, technological iterations, application deployment, regulatory developments—while macro liquidity becomes more of a background factor rather than the main driver. This actually presents an opportunity for crypto assets to prove that their alpha returns are not solely dependent on macro trends.

From another perspective, rather than blindly forging ahead alone, it’s better to seize this relatively clear cycle node. From now until the first half of 2026, industry data, technological breakthroughs, and policy directions are worth close attention—these are the real decisive factors.