Interesting contrasts have emerged. Recently, market analysts used the 50-week moving average as a technical tool to conduct an in-depth analysis of silver and Bitcoin, and the conclusions are quite thought-provoking—both assets could decline in 2026, but for completely opposite reasons.

Let's start with silver. As of the end of last year, silver was trading at around $72 per ounce, with a premium of 73% over the 50-week moving average. What does this mean? Historical data shows that such a high premium is extremely rare; the last time it happened was at the end of 1979.

And then? In early 1980, silver surged to nearly $50 per ounce, a historic high, but the following year, it plummeted by 52%, falling to $15.50, and then entered decades of stagnation. It wasn't until recently that silver regained the level of 1979 (which was $32.20). What does such a high premium indicate? The market may have become overly optimistic, and the pressure for a correction is building.

In contrast, Bitcoin's situation is entirely different. The current price is about $87,000, but relative to the 50-week moving average, it is trading at a discount of about 13%. What does this usually imply? A bottoming signal. According to this logic, there could still be nearly 55% downside. But this risk isn't due to overheating; it's due to market confidence being insufficient, and the downward inertia still continuing.

In simple terms, silver is a risk created by a price surge—its price has deviated significantly from the long-term trend amid market frenzy. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is a risk created by a decline—its price has remained below the trend line during the bear market, with further downside possible. The same technical indicator reflects very different market logic and risk characteristics in different market cycles. Therefore, in 2026, the downward risks faced by these two assets are fundamentally different.