2026-01-02 03:26:20

Recently, the Federal Reserve revealed a move in the December FOMC minutes—planning to purchase $220 billion in government bonds, ostensibly to ease short-term financing pressures, but this may also expose the true state of the dollar. Look at the offshore RMB, which has broken through 6.97, reaching a high of 6.9678, the highest since May 2023. The dollar is depreciating, and the Fed's large-scale bond purchases are likely a response to this situation.

Turning to the crypto market, Bitcoin and Ethereum have been consolidating since the New Year. BTC has been range-bound on the daily chart for nearly two weeks, showing no significant upward surge nor further decline. The Bollinger Bands are squeezed tightly, and the price has been repeatedly testing below the middle band. The recent rebound, while fitting the expected range strategy, lacked fundamental support. Coupled with ongoing market concerns over overvalued US stocks, short-term price action is likely to see a retracement, making the rebound period a better opportunity for shorting.

**January 2nd Short Position Setup:**

If Bitcoin rebounds within the 89,000-89,500 range, consider continuing to short; more conservative traders can wait until 90,000-90,500 to enter, with a stop around 91,500. Target levels are 88,000, 87,500, and 87,000. If the support breaks, look further down to 86,500-86,000, and adjust stops accordingly based on the breakout.

For Ethereum, follow a similar approach: if it rebounds to 3,000-3,030, continue shorting; conservative traders can enter at 3,060-3,090, with a stop at 3,130. Targets are 2,950-2,900, with caution if it breaks above 3,000-3,050, adjusting stops accordingly.

**January 2nd Long Position Setup:**

Aggressive traders can buy on dips to 86,000-86,500, with a stop at 85,000. Targets are 87,500, 88,000, 88,500, and 89,000. If it breaks above, watch for resistance at 89,500 and 90,000, and manage stops dynamically.

For Ethereum, establish longs at 2,860-2,900, with a stop at 2,820. Targets are 2,950-2,980, with caution if it breaks above 3,000-3,050, adjusting stops step by step.

The core strategy is to treat the current volatile market as a range. Once a breakout signal appears, cut losses decisively—don't hold through the shakeout. Conversely, if the price hits key levels but you’re hesitant to enter, you risk missing the move. When a strong breakout occurs, follow the trend accordingly.

BTC2,09%

ETH4,14%

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APY_Chaser

· 14h ago

This wave of US dollar depreciation, the Fed's 220 billion is really just scratching the surface. Seeing the RMB so strong, I know it's not a small matter. Breakout means stop loss, brother. Holding on stubbornly is just asking for death. This bottoming process is the biggest test of patience. A direct short on the 89,000 rebound, no need to wait. Anyway, it's going to move sooner or later. The Bollinger Bands are so tight, the next step must be a surge. It all depends on which side it breaks out to. Gambler's mentality is a no-go. Steady long positions can also make gains. Don't be too greedy. This round of RMB is really solid; the US dollar is finished. Entering long positions at 86,500 as insurance. This rebound is too weak, not worth chasing. The Fed's aggressive buying indicates what? The US dollar is basically beyond saving. Breaking the level and moving stop-loss should become a habit, or you'll kneel sooner or later. A rebound at 3,000 is a short, no need to overthink. No supporting news, high probability of a false breakout.

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BrokenYield

· 15h ago

fed's 220b treasury move screams desperation tbh... dollar's bleeding out and nobody wants to talk about it

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On-ChainDiver

· 15h ago

The Fed's recent actions are indeed a bit hasty. Spending $220 billion and still desperately defending the market shows that the dollar is really starting to struggle. The Bollinger Bands are so tight, and after half a month of no movement, I'm just waiting for the rebound to go short directly. This pullback shouldn't be missed. If the level breaks, stop loss decisively. Don't hold on stubbornly. When you're sure, enter the market. The market waits for no one. Offshore RMB has already broken above 6.97, while Bitcoin is still lingering. It's definitely time to move. I am optimistic about the shorting opportunity; it all depends on how far the rebound can go. Being conservative, waiting for 90,000 to enter is not too late.

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UncleWhale

· 15h ago

The Fed's $220 billion operation, to put it simply, is just prolonging the life of the dollar. It's both grinding sideways and range-bound; it feels like we're just waiting for a breakdown moment. The RMB has already broken 6.97, and the dollar is really showing some weakness. The Bollinger Bands are so tight that Bitcoin will eventually have to choose a direction—it's just a matter of who can't hold on first. Rebound and short sounds good, but I'm more afraid of getting trapped at a high level. That line at 88,000 feels like a key; if it breaks, we’ll have to look downward. Ethereum is moving in sync with Bitcoin; this time won't be an exception. Honestly, as long as the concern that US stocks are overvalued doesn't dissipate, crypto prices will find it hard to rise in the short term. The 90,000 resistance level feels a bit虚, and the upside space might not be as big as imagined. The idea of breaking and then stopping out isn't wrong, but in practice, there's always the desire to hold on a bit longer. The 3,000 mark is indeed a hurdle for Ethereum.

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BackrowObserver

· 15h ago

The Fed's recent actions look like they're trying to put out a fire. Why bother with the dollar depreciating so much? I'm already tired of the old trick of诱多 (诱多:诱导多头, misleading the bulls). I'll wait until a breakdown to make a move. This market trend is really annoying. It keeps grinding without any direction. No wonder everyone is looking for a rebound to short. It feels like the Bollinger Bands are truly locked in. I don't quite understand this走势 (trend) of the姨太 (mistress), it seems to have no support. The RMB has already broken 6.97, the dollar is indeed a bit miserable. It's that same range trading strategy again. I think this time it might break out. Breaking out and moving stop-loss sounds simple, but when it comes to critical moments, it's hard to act decisively. A rebound is just a shorting opportunity. I feel there might be some surprises ahead. Watching the Fed buy bonds, I just know the dollar is going to cool off.

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