2026-01-02 03:26:01

By the night market stall, the sizzling of charcoal fire crackles. Childhood friends take a few sips of beer, their eyes bloodshot, fingers pressing hard on their foreheads.

"Trading coins is even more exhausting than arbitrage!" When he uttered this, I could feel his frustration. Half a year ago, he entered the crypto world with 80,000 yuan, still echoing his confident vow—"I only trade spot, I won't touch leverage no matter what, I probably can't lose everything, right?" And now? The account balance is 12,000. He looks thinner, and his eyes have lost their shine.

I asked him how exactly he fell into this. He forced a bitter smile and counted:

He treats what group friends say as gospel. Whoever in the group shouts "The market is about to surge," he rushes in like he's been injected with chicken blood. When the price drops, he becomes even more frantic to add to his position, thinking "Just hold on a little longer, I can break even," but the deeper he falls. When it rises a little, he can't sit still, afraid that profits will evaporate, so he quickly clears his positions. Turns out, that wave was the real big market move.

"Actually," he leans back in his chair, "it's not the coin itself, but people being driven crazy by the market."

Many people believe in the "safety" of spot trading. Little do they know, it's this false sense of security that is the most deadly—like boiling a frog in warm water, by the time you realize something's wrong, it's already too late to jump out. Based on my observations over the past six months, almost every novice falls into the same few traps:

**Following the herd and calling the shots, always the one who ends up holding the bag**

A certain coin suddenly floods all the groups, with screenshots of "Ready to skyrocket" and "Big shots already bottomed out" everywhere. Ordinary people see this and get hyped. But what’s the reality? By the time you hear about it, the news has already circulated through several rounds, and the final blow is in your hands. Those calling the shots probably already laid out their plans carefully, just waiting for people like you to rush in and take the fall. Once the hype dies down, the coin's price halves, and they’ve already cashed out.

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RumbleValidator

· 4h ago

The metaphor of boiling frogs in warm water is spot on; information asymmetry is how silently the leek is being harvested. From 80,000 to 12,000, this figure actually reflects a typical failure of the validation mechanism—there's no independent judgment node, relying solely on collective consensus as the signal source. This is the most fragile link in any system. The real issue isn't the coin itself, but that he hasn't built his own information processing framework.

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ser_we_are_ngmi

· 4h ago

It’s exhausting to watch, isn’t it? Isn’t this just a replica of what I was doing half a year ago... Now I’ve learned to be smarter. As soon as I join the group, I follow those calling signals—really stupid, always the last to act. The metaphor of boiling a frog in warm water is perfect; spot trading seems stable but is actually the most dangerous. The key is mindset. The market is testing human nature; if you can’t hold on, you get out. I totally understand his current situation. Losing money isn’t the hardest part; a mental breakdown is the real torture. I’ve fallen into the trap of adding to my position countless times, always thinking the next wave will recover the losses, ugh.

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ProofOfNothing

· 4h ago

80,000 into the crypto world, and still calling it safe with 12,000 left? This is the perfect example of boiling a frog slowly. --- Really, as soon as you follow the trend, you've already lost. Have you ever heard the common line of a bagholder? That's just how it is. --- His statement "the market drives people crazy" is not wrong, but the problem is he didn't think through risk management from the start. --- Adding to positions forever, this routine has been played out so many times, and people still fall for it. I'm also speechless. --- Looking at this story, I think of someone, who invested 80,000 and still dares to say "no leverage," but they can lose everything just like in spot trading. --- The decree in the group? Bro, your analogy is perfect, it's just so outrageous. --- Take profits when it rises, add when it falls. If everyone follows this rhythm, they'll all go crazy.

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DaoResearcher

· 4h ago

It is worth noting that there is a classic information asymmetry problem here — from a game theory perspective, the payoff function of late entrants inevitably tends to be negative in an environment where token liquidity distribution is highly uneven. Your friend's experience just confirms the participant incentive imbalance mentioned by Vitalik in "On Blockchain Governance."

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DefiPlaybook

· 4h ago

According to on-chain data, the characteristics of this type of "lukewarm water boiling frog" loss account for about 73%... Wait, no, this guy's story is actually a classic example of the opposite of emotional trading. From three dimensions, first is the information gap disadvantage—by the time you hear about it, it's already the Nth round of dissemination, and TVL has already started to decline; second is the psychological trap—adding to positions is like a flash loan attack, once triggered, it's hard to stop; third is the lack of risk control mechanisms—he didn't set a stop-loss at all, which is a taboo in any professional strategy. It’s worth noting that seemingly low-risk spot trading actually provides false security—essentially prolonged exposure to volatility. From 80,000 to 12,000, this loss rate is enough to be included as a counterexample in a research report.

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NFTRegretful

· 4h ago

Really, I've heard this kind of story too many times. 8万入场，1万2出场, this is the "security" of spot trading, haha. Promised not to touch leverage but still got caught, it’s just a matter of losing your mindset. The brothers in the group who were calling trades have already been wiped out, leaving only us poor fools. The saying "boiling a frog in warm water" is true; by the time you realize it, you're already cooked. Missing this wave of market movement is truly regrettable, but it's probably better than being washed out completely. The most harmful phrase in the crypto world is "Hold on a little longer," hold on for what, I would have already exited long ago. Spot trading safe? Spot is just a gamble of trading time for space. Honestly, it's more hopeless than leverage, because you always think there’s hope.

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