2025 is not a very smooth year for BTC. The year-end closing price was $87,474, down 6% for the year, marking the first annual negative return since 2022. In contrast, the stock market performed strongly, and the lagging feeling of crypto assets is obvious.

Looking back at the year's trend, it has indeed been a rollercoaster. In the first quarter, it surged to 90,000, then started to fluctuate in the second quarter, and in the third quarter, it ambitiously broke through 120,000 to set a new all-time high. But the good times didn't last long; a chain reaction triggered by tariff policies in October caused a sharp decline, dropping straight from the high of 126,000. By November and December, the rebound momentum was insufficient, and the entire market was digesting this correction. The annual volatility exceeded 50%, which is quite intense.

However, compared to 2022's -65%, this -6% is relatively mild. That year was truly disastrous—Luna collapse, FTX explosion, and a chain of credit crises. This time, the decline was purely due to macro liquidity tightening leading to valuation compression, and institutionalized BTC is more sensitive to interest rate changes.

From a technical perspective, the annual line closed in the red but with a long upper shadow, indicating strong buying support above. The long-term holder cost basis at $80,000 is a key support level; as long as this line holds, the bull market pattern will not change. The monthly chart is still in an upward channel, and the weekly chart has not broken the original structure, which are all positive signals.

Even more interesting is the on-chain data performance. Whales are aggressively accumulating at the bottom, exchange reserves are at a historic low, and the proportion of long-term holders is rising—these are typical features of mid-cycle bull market adjustments. Looking back at history, every annual loss has been followed by a significant rebound: after -65% in 2022, 2023 saw a +155% increase; after -73% in 2018, 2019 rebounded +94%. The pattern is right there.

For investors, an annual loss itself is not scary; what’s frightening is the collapse of confidence. BTC’s long-term logic remains unchanged—the absolute cap of 21 million coins, the halving cycle proceeding as usual, increasing institutional adoption, and fiat currency devaluation accelerating. There are many catalysts for 2026: expectations of interest rate cuts, positive policy signals, further expansion of ETF products.

The suggestion is to stay the course or add positions appropriately. This is the feeling of bottoming out.