#数字资产动态追踪 2026 The new year begins, and the Federal Reserve has set the tone for the market with a policy rate of 3.50%-3.75%. The 25 basis point rate cut in December last year was more of a year-end ritual, while the actual policy logic points in another direction — economic resilience remains strong, and inflation stickiness is not so easy to shake off.

The dot plot released in December has made it clear: there may only be one rate cut throughout the year, with inflation stuck at 2.4% and GDP growth actually rising to 2.3%. This set of data is enough to illustrate the Fed’s stance — limited room for rate cuts.

Wall Street has varied opinions on this. A leading investment bank expects two cuts for the year, another is more conservative, expecting only one, some even boldly proclaim "zero rate cuts for the year," while others cling to the fantasy of "cutting 150 basis points." The biggest uncertainty lies in May — if there are personnel changes in the Fed leadership, the liquidity policy script could be rewritten.

The real turning point points to the January FOMC meeting. The update of the dot plot at this meeting will directly influence the market’s expectations for liquidity throughout the year. The countdown for stock and crypto volatility has begun — if the median of the dot plot remains unchanged or is raised, it indicates a hawkish tilt; if unexpectedly lowered, easing expectations could trigger a market rally.

The core logic is simple: strong inflation stickiness + robust economy = the Fed won’t rush to ease. Unless unemployment data suddenly worsens or inflation drops off a cliff, the annual tone will remain "steady but tight."

Advice for traders: keep a close eye on the specific numbers in the dot plot, don’t jump the gun, and wait until the market’s initial wave of emotion subsides before making calm adjustments. The turning point in liquidity often lies in the expectation gap — acting a half-step ahead is often more rewarding than trying to catch the bottom.

$BTC