#Strategy加码BTC配置 🔥 The first FOMC bomb of the new year is here: Is the Federal Reserve hawkish or dovish?

What’s the big deal about the 25 basis points at the end of the year? It’s just a "ceremonial" rate cut at year-end. The problem is, the economy is still holding on, inflation stubbornly sticks at 2.4% and refuses to come down, and GDP is running at 2.3%—these data points are on the table, and the dovish camp can’t expect a turnaround.

The December dot plot already signals: possibly one more 25 basis point cut for the year, and that’s it. Wall Street is buzzing, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley strongly betting on two cuts, while JPMorgan is only daring to bet on one. What’s even more amusing is that some are shouting "zero rate cuts this year," while others are wildly speculating "a furious 150 basis point cut"—the difference is dizzying.

The most critical variable is in May. If Powell is replaced as chair, the game rules could be rewritten.

The median of the January FOMC dot plot is the key—holding steady or raising rates indicates a hawkish dominance, while an unexpected cut could trigger a dovish rally. Both the stock market and crypto are bracing for volatility; countdown to turbulence has already begun.

Simple and straightforward logic: sticky inflation + economic resilience = the Fed won’t be soft in the short term. Unless unemployment suddenly spikes or inflation suddenly plunges, this cycle will be a "slow rate cut" pace.

Don’t rush to go all-in; wait until the first wave of emotions subsides before acting. Opportunities for liquidity turning points always hide in the gaps of market expectations.

$BTC